In The Global Economic Downturn, Cotton Consumption Has Entered A New Pattern.

Recently, it is very difficult for enterprises or individuals to invest in a conventional way to invest.

Since mid February, Zheng cotton has been oscillating downward. After May 7th, it continued to fall sharply. Some of the funds were scrambled to rebound, but the market situation did not match this operation.

The author believes that at present, the market environment has undergone fundamental changes.

It's not just cotton.

May 23, 2012, representing the domestic standard level.

The level of the national cotton B index dropped to 19090 yuan / ton, a decrease of 571 yuan / ton, or a decrease of 2.9% compared with the February 24th high of 19661 yuan / ton; the international cotton index (M), representing the external cotton price level, dropped to 86.36 cents / pound, falling by more than 13.5%; the main cotton contract of zhengmian was 18583 yuan / ton, the decrease was 13.9%; and the main contract of ICE cotton futures was 73.34 cents / pound, or 18.5%.

The fall is not unique to cotton.

Since February, domestic and foreign major stock markets and commodity futures markets, including metals, have entered a weak position. After April, the market prices of most varieties increased.

The gloomy global economic environment

Economic growth is slowing down.

The World Bank forecasts that global economic growth in 2012 will be 2.5%, compared with 3.2% in 2011 and 3.9% in 2010.

At present, the international economy is facing risks.

On the one hand, the European financial market and the real economy are facing huge uncertainties.

The euro area with 17 member countries accounted for 10.9% of the workforce in March, reaching the highest level since the euro was issued in 1999. What is more worrying is that Greece failed to form a coalition government after the recent election. The tension in the euro zone has increased and the risk of Greece's withdrawal from the euro zone has increased.

Once Greece is out of the euro zone, the euro will face the risk of disintegration.

In addition, the fragility of the US economic recovery has cast a shadow of uncertainty on the future economic trend.

Signals indicate that the US economy is facing a downward pressure after the expected rebound.

The growth of commercial inventories has slowed down, and the growth of consumer spending has exceeded revenue growth. This means that American consumers are spending more money through their savings and loans.

According to data from the Federal Reserve Board and other agencies, the output value of manufacturing industry decreased by 0.2% in March, and the number of new non-agricultural employment increased by 115 thousand in April, which was significantly lower than that of 154 thousand in March. The unemployment rate continued to be at a high level of over 8%; the consumer confidence index fell at a high level, and the personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.3%, slower than the 0.9% increase in February.

At home,

Is still in the process of downward adjustment.

In April, China's foreign trade exports increased by 4.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 25 percentage points year-on-year. Imports grew 0.3% year on year, and the growth rate dropped 21.5 percentage points year-on-year.

In terms of prices, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% compared to the same period last year, and the producer price index (PPI) of industrial producers fell by 0.7% over the same period last year.

Deviating from the trend shows that under the background of high inflation, overcapacity and inventory pressure are emerging.

In May 12th, the people's Bank of China announced that since May 18th, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions has been reduced by 0.5 percentage points, which is the second time since 2012 that the reserve requirement ratio has been cut down.

Considering that the overall size of the trade surplus continued to narrow in the first quarter, the new foreign exchange accounted for a decrease of 74.1% compared to the same period last year, continuing the negative growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The lowering of the deposit reserve ratio does not mean that the domestic monetary policy has shifted from tight to loose.

Cotton consumption drivers are not

Since 2004, the prices of market elements such as land, labor and capital have been rising gradually, and the stage of supporting the economic development by low price elements has basically ended.

The 2008 global financial crisis declared that the big cycle mode of Asian production and consumption in Europe and America has come to an end, and the world economy has lost its original growth momentum.

Looking at the world, it is very difficult to find regions or countries with sufficient scale and continuous consumption growth. The new economic growth pattern or consumption power is difficult to form in the short term. International bulk commodities including cotton must find new consumption drivers. China's export driven economic growth mode has basically come to an end.

The big problem in the textile industry is the overcapacity.

The fundamental factors that determine the potential growth of textile economy, whether endogenous, exogenous, or demand and supply, are undergoing major changes.

The advantage of "demographic dividend" has gradually declined, and the process of industrialization and urbanization will also tend to slow down. After the "resource dividend" has declined, economic growth is facing the bottleneck of resources and environment.

China is facing difficulties in external demand and domestic demand.

The background of industry nurturing agriculture has basically taken shape. Cotton production and consumption have entered a new pattern of mutual benefit and mutual restraint.

The scale of national agricultural production has not yet been fully launched and vigorously promoted.

Production, and then the pattern of promoting consumption through production, will be difficult to form in the short term.