The Floating Market Of Cotton Is Larger Than That Of &Nbsp.

With the end of the national cotton purchase and storage,

Cotton spinning enterprises encirclement

Cotton demand continues to slow down

At present, the present situation of production and marketing of cotton textile enterprises is to purchase cotton carefully and seldom store cotton. The market demand is continuously weak, sales of products are sluggish, enterprises focus on inventory elimination, many enterprises reduce the proportion of raw materials and cotton, import cotton use and demand increase, and the proportion of non cotton fibers such as chemical fiber increases.

Zhu Beina, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, said that the cotton textile industry is indeed in a predicament.

Cotton at home and abroad

Gao Fang, executive vice president and Secretary General of the China Cotton Association, said in April 6th this year's "China Cotton Trade Fair 2012" that although the domestic cotton prices fluctuated in 2011, the international cotton market fluctuated more or more than 50% during the same period. This shows that our government's policy of purchasing and storage has played an important role in stabilizing domestic cotton prices.

The total amount of cotton storage and storage reached 3 million 130 thousand tons in 2011, the largest since 1984.

Last year, Jiangsu and other places due to the disaster caused by the low proportion of the larger proportion of cotton, the 2012 year's collection and storage policy has been improved, indicating that the state has fully considered the interests of the industry when formulating policies.

As for the trend of 2011/2012 cotton in the future, Gao Fang believes that although there are many influencing factors, the real role in the cotton market is the global economic situation and the demand for cotton.

At present, the world economy is showing signs of recovery, and the US economy is showing signs of improvement. However, the European debt crisis is continuing and global demand is weakening.

The domestic economy insists on making steady progress. No matter whether the national macro policy or the micro regulation of cotton is basically stable.

China Cotton Association February 2012 national cotton planting intention survey shows that cotton farmers' planting intention is still on the decline.

Insufficient storage capacity of storage cotton

Market participants calculate small accounts.

Zhang Wenmin, general manager of the cotton industry division of Wanda Futures Limited, gave an account to reporters in an interview: in 2011/2012, China cotton storage company has collected 3 million 130 thousand tons of domestic cotton and 1 million tons of imported cotton, plus 300 thousand tons of cotton, a total of 4 million 430 thousand tons of reserve cotton, and the storage capacity of storage cotton has been insufficient.

In the new year, if we increase the storage capacity of 2 million ~400 tons, the storage capacity of cotton reserves will be unbearable.

According to the forecast, the 6 million tons of the new year will be the upper limit of the national cotton reserves, and the next 3 million tons of 6 million 500 thousand tons of new cotton in the next year will not be stored and sold, and can only be sold on the market, which will cause the domestic and foreign market price of cotton to fall. ~500

Therefore, in the second half of this year and the new year, it is necessary to reserve 1 million 500 thousand ~300 million tons in batches at appropriate parity so as to ensure the implementation of the national reserve policy.

In this way, the national storage price of 20400 yuan per ton will become the high price of the cotton market in the early stage of next year.

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Zhang Wenmin thinks, because

On the issue of quotas for imported cotton, Zhang Wenmin said that the price of cotton futures in Zhengzhou City reached 21570~22700 yuan per ton this year, which was higher than cotton 2000~4000 yuan per ton, the highest cotton price in the world. Domestic spot cotton remained at 19200~19700 yuan per ton for a long time; imported cotton yarns in the United States, India, Pakistan, Australia and Brazil were converted to cotton per ton of 15000~18000 yuan, according to their own import cotton sliding quasi tax quota, each ton was lower than the Chinese market cotton price 3000~5000 yuan.

China's main port bonded warehouses imported cotton stocks increased to more than 100 tons in 1~3 months, and the new cotton market in Australia and Brazil also caused the import pressure of high-grade high-grade cotton.

In February, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 9 billion 700 million US dollars, down 7% from the same period last year, and the sharp decline of 55%.

In 2011/2012, China imported 2 million 610 thousand tons of cotton and 2 million 300 thousand tons of cotton yarn, a significant increase compared with the same period last year.

In 2011/2012, 2 million tons of imported cotton have been issued, including 894 thousand tons 1% tariff quota and 1 million 100 thousand tons processing and sliding quota.

It is estimated that 1 million ~150 million tons sliding quota will be renewed in April.

NDRC will choose timing

Quota allocation reserve

Zhang Xianbin, director of the economic and Trade Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said that cotton production had been greatly influenced by prices in recent years, and the industry had called for stability.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of cotton temporary purchase and storage in 2012 was determined to be 20400 yuan per ton, or less than the minimum purchase protection price of wheat rice.

Judging from the effect of purchasing and storage, the price of China's cotton market in 2011 is relatively stable, basically achieving the expected goal. If there is no such policy, the domestic and foreign cotton prices may fall far behind the current global supply and demand situation.

For the market generally concerned about the end of the purchase and storage of cotton prices trend, Zhang Xianbin believes that the stable operation of the market will be the main keynote.

He said that in the past 7 months, a lot of cotton had been consumed and 3 million 130 thousand tons were collected. The remaining cotton in the market could be calculated, and cotton prices declined even if they fell.

To put it another way, if the price goes down, there are various regulatory means.

Under the condition of low cotton prices, the state will have a good grasp of the timing and rhythm of the issuance and reserves of quotas; if there is a rapid rise in cotton prices, the state will also have sufficient resources and means to regulate it.

Zhang Xianbin hopes cotton companies to maintain a good mentality, do not bet on the market, do not hoard cotton, rational operation.

The state will also take measures to maintain a smooth operation of the cotton market.