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Ye Tan: Pork Is No Longer Flying &Nbsp; CPI Is Still Flying.

2012/4/10 12:00:00 20

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March

CPI

The increase is more than expected.

Pork has always been considered as the main engine to push up CPI, and pork price is about 3% of CPI. At present, the engine is flameout, and CPI still has enormous pressure.

Farmers, feed traders, middlemen and consumers can not profit from the fall in pork prices.

In March, CPI was mainly food and consumer goods.

Food prices rose 7.5% over the same period last year, affecting the total consumer price level rose by about 2.39 percentage points over the same period.

Among them, grain prices rose 4.3%, affecting the consumer price level rose by about 0.12 percentage points; meat and poultry products and their products rose by 11.3%, affecting the total consumer price level rose by 0.78 percentage points (pork prices rose 11.3%, affecting the total consumer price level rose by 0.35 percentage points); fresh vegetable prices Rose 20.5%, affecting the total consumer price level rose by 0.64 percentage points; aquatic products prices rose 11.4%, affecting the total consumer price level rose by about 0.27 percentage points; oil prices rose 5.2%, affecting the overall level of consumer price increases by about 1%; while fresh fruit prices and egg prices fell.

Pork prices rose by 11.3% over the same period last year, but the price of the ring fell. The price of meat and poultry and its products decreased by 2.5%, of which pork prices fell by 4.8%, affecting the consumer price level by about 0.17 percentage points.

The farmers are fighting hard.

At present, the price of pork has dropped to near the point of "large-scale pig killing cycle".

Since January this year, pork prices have continued to decline.

The monitoring of the prices of agricultural products and agricultural products showed that the price of pork continued to decline in January 26th, which has been more than two months, and the pork prices in more than 50% provinces and municipalities have fallen by more than 15%.

In addition, the Ministry of commerce data also showed that as of April 1st, the price of pork nationwide has dropped for nine consecutive weeks, down 11.5% from the end of January. The prices of Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin have dropped by 23.7%, 22.6% and 14.8% respectively, compared with the latter half of January.

Pig breeding is at the key point of winning and losing balance.

Farmers are the natural losers of pork prices falling, and in sharp contrast to the falling prices of pork, the cost of raising pigs such as feed and artificial labor has been rising.

Comprehensive pork price net and other professional website data, in March 2011, the average price of pork in the month is 21.17 yuan / kg, up 0.98%; the average price of corn is 2042.45 yuan / ton, up 56.99 yuan / ton from last month, up 2.87%; the average price of soybean meal is 3464.25 yuan / ton, down 29.23 yuan / ton from last month, 0.84% lower than the average.

In the first week of April, the price of pork was 24.65 yuan per kilogram, and the average price of corn increased slightly by 0.40%, up 6.75% from the same period (0.16 yuan / kg), but it hit a new high of three years. The wheat bran ring ratio dropped slightly by 0.48%, up 8.33% from the same period (up 0.16 yuan / kg), and the ratio of pig feed batch to slightly increased 0.61%, up by 5.41% (up to 0.17 yuan / kg).

Consumers profit from the fall in pork prices is wishful thinking.

The price of pork is rising spirally, but the difference is just how much it rises. The current decline in pork prices is a platform in the rising corridor.

According to statistics, the average price of pork in April 13, 2007 was 12.96 yuan / kg, and in August it rose to 20.22 yuan / kg, or up to 56%, a record high.

In May 2011, the wholesale price of pork was around 25 yuan per kilogram, and the consumer price (CPI) rose by 5.5% in May.

In June, the wholesale price of pork nationwide averaged 26 yuan / Jin, CPI rose to 6.4% last year, a 3 year high.

Pork prices are down, but still up to 24.65 yuan.

Consumers did not get much benefit from it.

Pig feed companies are also unprofitable.

The southern rural newspaper revealed that as of the end of 3, corn prices were close to 2600 yuan / ton, and soybean meal quotations were 3300 yuan / ton.

The two raw materials occupy nearly 90% of feed.

suffer

cost

In the past two months, the price of pig feed has increased two times, and the increase is about 50 yuan per ton.

Chen Liang, general manager of Guangzhou Hope Industrial Co., Ltd. calculated that the total cost of packaging, labor costs and packaging costs of large scale full price feed enterprises was about 120 yuan / ton, while the small and medium-sized ones even reached 180-190 yuan per ton.

In the small and medium-sized pig feeding stage, the corn consumption is about 65%, the soybean meal consumption is 20%-25%, and the premix and some other additives are used to remove the formula cost and 1% raw material processing loss. The quality of the pig feed is about 3500 yuan / ton, and the middle and large pig material price is about 3300 yuan / ton.

And some non brand pig feed enterprises, because the purchasing of corn is relatively low, the cost of raw materials such as miscellaneous meal and DDGS is relatively low, the cost of producing full price material will be lower than the above price.

Considering that labor costs have risen exponentially in the past two years, the price of raw materials such as corn has increased, and feed prices are bound to push up further.

Feed enterprises are also at break even point.

Prices are rising, and no profits have been made.

profit

Where is it? Only one explanation is that the global release of currency has fundamentally pushed up the price of basic products, and we will never return to the pork price cycle before 2006.

The global manufacturing industry is sluggish, and the two core prices of oil and agricultural products are at a high level.

According to a research report released by Thailand Taihua Farmers Research Center in March 22nd, in 2012 1-2, the price of agricultural products in the world market showed an upward trend, and the food price index rose from 210.8 in December 2011 to 215.3 in February 2012.

By March 20th, China's corn futures broke the historical record and consolidated at 2477 yuan, while grain futures such as soybeans and strong wheat showed an upward trend.

Soybeans have risen nearly 15% since February, and are running at a high level in the past six months.

The main central bank's monetary consequences have shown that there has been a slight stagnation trend in the world, especially for the emerging economies. This is the fundamental reason why the CPI does not fly.

Some investors continue to call on the us to launch QE3 for their own interests, which is a major stumbling block in the recovery of emerging economies.