2008 Business Conference: Stabilizing Exports And Expanding Imports

In 2008, the business working meeting happened to coincided with the first snow in Beijing. The snowy flowers made hundreds of officials from the bureaus of the Ministry of Commerce, bureaus of Commerce and bureaus of various provinces and municipalities, and foreign business organizations on the way to Friendship Hotel.

"I hope this is a good omen.

"Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce shortly after taking office, said to them.

The old Chinese saying "auspicious snow and bumper harvest" has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

In the past 5 years, China's foreign trade has been in the "bumper harvest year": the total import and export volume increased from 620 billion 800 million US dollars in 2002 to 21738 billion US dollars in 2007, with an average annual growth of 28.5%.

In January 17th, Chen Deming said in his work report that these 5 years are the longest growth period, the fastest speed and the most stable growth period since the reform and opening up.

But in this winter, the foreign trade industry has seen a chill in its prosperity: all kinds of factors that are not conducive to the continued rapid growth of China's exports may also be difficult at the same time.

"At present, the difficulties and risks faced by business work are increasing. We must enhance our sense of urgency, take the initiative to deal with it, and make sure that we can prepare for the rainy day.

"Chen Deming said.

In his work report, Chen Deming described the task of China's foreign trade in 2008 as follows: "accelerate the pformation of the mode of foreign trade development, and maintain steady growth in exports and pay more attention to expanding imports" on the basis of optimizing the structure of imports and exports.

In 2007, the first task of the Ministry of Commerce "reduction of favorable balance" did not appear in this year's report, indicating that the government is not optimistic about the export situation this year.

An increase of export pressure, an expert said, "maintaining stable export growth" should not only point out the stability of the export volume, but more importantly, the export should maintain a reasonable growth rate.

In 2007, China exported 25.7%, still maintained a high growth rate of over 25%.

But in fact, from August 2007, the export growth rate slowed down for 5 consecutive months, and remained at around 22%.

At present, the mainstream analysis thinks that this is related to a series of tight export policies adopted by the Chinese government in 2007, such as cancelling and lowering export tax rebates, implementing export license management, and adjusting processing trade catalogues.

Chen Deming said that despite the sustained development of the national economy, the pressure to prevent inflation and stabilize exports has increased.

First of all, the pressure of price rise has increased significantly. Due to the subsequent impact of energy resources and pportation prices, tight capital supply, increased labor costs, and adjustment of export policies, enterprises are facing new pressures on exports.

In 2007, China's labor cost increased rapidly. In the eastern coastal provinces, the average wage increased by more than 20% because of insufficient labor supply.

Because most of China's foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are concentrated in the "two high one capital" (high pollution, high energy consumption, resource type) or low value-added labor intensive industries, which are greatly affected by the tightening of banks.

Although the Chinese government takes into account the overall factors and does not allow domestic production factors such as water and electricity to rise, the price of international shipping, which is most concerned by foreign trade enterprises, has increased by 150% in the first 11 months of 2007.

The downturn in the external demand market may also hurt the export industry.

Chen Deming said that although the world economy will continue to grow, the trend has slowed down and the uncertainty has increased significantly.

The US dollar continues to depreciate, the US subprime mortgage crisis is still developing, and the price of international energy and grain is rising, which has great influence on the world economy.

Another effect of the slow growth of international trade, the depreciation of the US dollar and the rise of inflationary pressure is the increasing number of international economic and trade frictions, and the expansion of economic and trade frictions, from anti-dumping and intellectual property rights to new fields such as product quality, climate and environment, and countervailing measures.

Previously, a number of investment banks such as Credit Suisse estimated that China's exports could slow down to 15% in 2008 due to low external demand, and Deutsche Bank's estimate was 18%, with fewer than 20% predicted.

Service trade has become a new driving point. Many local officials of commercial departments have expressed their hope at the working conference that they will maintain the stability and foresight of the foreign trade policy in 2008 and avoid a series of unfavorable factors such as exchange rate, credit, production costs and so on.

Chen Deming said that in 2008, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to optimize the structure of export commodities, insist on winning by quality, and strive to improve the quality of export products.

We should promote the construction of a technological innovation base, focusing on the fields of information technology, biomedicine, and new materials, and cultivate a number of export products with independent intellectual property rights and independent brands.

Formulate brand development plan, identify key cultivation objects, and integrate support policies.

We should comprehensively use various measures to effectively control the export of "two high and one capital" products.

We should promote enterprises to fulfill their social responsibilities and strictly enforce laws, regulations and standards such as labor, safety and environmental protection.

And service trade is becoming a new highlight of the government's promotion of exports. Chen Deming said that we should improve the management system and form a working pattern for all regions and departments to jointly promote the development of service trade.

We should explore the establishment of a service trade demonstration zone in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai rim region where the development is well established and the conditions are more mature.

We will implement the "11th Five-Year plan" for trade in services, study and formulate Guidance Catalogue for trade in services export and policy measures to accelerate the development of service trade.

We should actively develop tourism, pportation, construction, finance, insurance, accounting and other service exports.

According to the previous "11th Five-Year plan" of service trade, by 2010, China's service trade import and export should double to 2006, reaching 40 million US dollars.

The Chinese government's expansion of imports will also enter the second year this year. The Ministry of Commerce will encourage enterprises to import advanced technology and equipment, energy saving and environmental protection equipment, key components and important raw materials.

Support public information services and import exhibitions, organize overseas procurement.

Relying on the bidding and procurement of national major equipment independent projects, we will improve the efficiency of advanced technology and equipment import.

Measures should be taken to facilitate facilitation, simplify procedures and reduce import restrictions.

In the second half of 2007, the growth rate of China's imports continued to rise. In October -12, the export growth rate exceeded the export growth rate for more than 25% months in three months.