Seize The Strategic Opportunity Of A New Round Of Economic Pformation

1. the economy is entering a new round of adjustment.

In 2012,

First, economic growth tends to slow down.

In 2011, economic growth slowed down by quarter. The 4 quarter GDP growth was 9.7%, 9.5%, 9.1% and 8.9%, respectively. The annual economic growth was 9.2%, and the growth rate dropped 1.2 percentage points over the previous year.

The moderate economic growth rate is the result of the global economic slowdown and the combined effect of active regulation and market demand changes in China.

In 2012, China's economic growth is still facing downward pressure.

From the international perspective, although the negative impact of international market demand on China will not be as serious as that in the first half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, but with the pace of world economic recovery slowing down and the deepening of the European sovereign debt crisis, the contraction of external demand will still have a great impact on China.

From the domestic point of view, maintaining the rapid growth of investment is the key to avoid the economic downturn. However, due to the large scale of infrastructure construction, the regulation and control of the real estate market can not be relaxed, and the pressure of price inflation is still large, it is difficult to take a big investment and expansion measures, and the growth rate of investment may slow down.

Industrial production is constrained by factors such as the pressure of overcapacity in manufacturing industry, the increase in production costs and the intensification of energy saving and emission reduction constraints.

Two, the pressure of rising prices is still relatively large.

Positive changes have taken place in the price situation, especially in 2011. The grain harvest has made the price increase of agricultural products tend to fall. The slowdown in the world economy has slowed down the pressure of commodity price rise, coupled with the slowing down of China's economic growth, and the demand pull factor has weakened, which has created conditions for restraining the rise in prices.

But we should also see that the base of agricultural production is still weak, and the mechanism of resisting the cyclical fluctuation of farm produce prices has not yet formed. Crude oil and other commodities are still influenced by geopolitics, and there is no possibility of large-scale shocks. The rising trend of production factors such as labor force, energy resources, land and so on will continue for a long time, and cost push will still become an important factor for price rise.

Three, the task of structural adjustment is more arduous.

From the perspective of demand structure, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth in 2011 is higher than that of last year, but the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth is still weak.

In addition, from the perspective of industrial structure, income structure and energy conservation and emission reduction, the task of structural adjustment in 2012 is still very arduous. The contradiction between economic structural contradictions and aggregate contradictions exists. The short-term problems and medium and long-term problems are intertwined, and domestic factors and international factors superimpose, so the difficulty of macroeconomic regulation is still very large.

2., maintain macroeconomic policies and promote economic pformation.

The characteristics of China's economy in the adjustment period are related to the changes of internal and external environment.

We should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and pay more attention to structural tax reduction and structural adjustment of expenditure.

Structural tax reduction mainly includes implementing various policies to increase tax burden on small and micro enterprises, such as raising the value added tax and business tax threshold, implementing preferential tax policies for small and micro enterprises, expanding the scope of the business tax to replace VAT, reducing the duties of some import commodities, and implementing relevant policies to lighten the tax burden of logistics enterprises.

Structural tax reduction, on the one hand, is to create a more relaxed environment for the development of the real economy. On the other hand, it also reflects the policy tilt towards SMEs and services, and embodies the policy orientation of promoting structural adjustment.

The structural adjustment of fiscal expenditure is mainly to increase investment in people's livelihood, support affordable housing projects, agricultural and rural infrastructure, scientific and technological innovation and educational and cultural and health infrastructure construction, energy conservation and emission reduction and ecological construction, independent innovation capacity building and the development of strategic emerging industries, increase the scale of local balanced pfer payments, and enhance the support ability of weak financial areas to implement various livelihood policies.

At the same time, we should give priority to supporting the construction and renewal projects of major national infrastructures, give play to the benefits as early as possible, avoid half a dozen projects, and start construction of a number of major projects identified in the 12th Five-Year plan outline.

We should continue to implement prudent monetary policy, pay more attention to pre fine-tuning and optimize the credit structure.

According to the economic operation and the use of various monetary policy tools, the pre regulation is to flexibly adjust the supply of money and credit, maintain a reasonable growth in the scale of social financing, and meet the needs of steady and rapid economic development.

On the basis of total volume, we should further optimize the credit structure, and guide financial institutions to increase their support for economic and social key areas and weak links, especially the "three rural", small and medium-sized enterprises and affordable housing, and continue to strictly control "two high and one capital" industry loans, support the development of strategic emerging industries, and better serve the real economy.

At the same time, we should also give full play to the positive role of the capital market, improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, improve the management of foreign exchange reserves, enhance the basic role of market allocation of resources, and further support economic restructuring.

3., speed up pformation and win time and future.

Toward the future, China's development still faces many strategic opportunities.

The expansion of domestic consumption market and huge consumption potential can be pformed into a strong driving force for economic growth. Accelerating urbanization will create huge investment demand and consumption demand, and the larger space for technological innovation and human capital will give new impetus to economic growth.

We must firmly grasp the strategic opportunities, accelerate the pformation of the economy, and keep the macroeconomic stability at the same time, while paying attention to adjusting the economic structure and solving long-term development problems instead of paying too much attention to speed.

In the absence of a fundamental change in the way of economic development, the pursuit of excessive speed is bound to increase the input of resources and elements on a large scale, thus making it difficult to achieve the goal of structural adjustment such as increasing consumption rate, increasing the proportion of service industry, increasing the proportion of residents' income in national income, and improving the contribution rate of technological progress.

We should slow down inflationary pressures at the expense of some speed, and push the adjustment of economic structure.

First, we must adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand.

The growth of the world economy and external demand is slowing down, and the space for releasing production capacity through the international market has narrowed. It is urgent to enhance the pulling effect of domestic demand and form an endogenous driving force for sustained and rapid economic growth.

To this end, we should expand consumption demand as the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand, build a long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand, gradually increase the consumption growth rate of residents and the consumption rate of residents, enhance the stimulating effect of final consumption on economic growth, increase the income level and consumption ability of urban and rural residents, especially the middle and low income residents, expand the middle-income group, encourage the upgrading of residents' consumption structure, and cultivate new consumption formats such as cultural, tourism and vocational training, such as new service consumption and network consumption.

At the same time, we should adapt to the needs of expanding domestic demand and readjust the economic structure, maintain reasonable investment growth, and strive to readjust the investment structure.

Second, speed up industrial pformation and upgrading.

The contraction of international market demand has further highlighted the contradiction between overcapacity in China. We urgently need to accelerate the new round of industrial pformation and upgrading, enhance the industrial value chain, and expand the development space in the emerging industries.

To this end, we should focus on breaking through the key links that restrict the upgrading of the industrial value chain, accelerate the development of producer services such as financial insurance, business services, science and technology services and information services, accelerate the development of productive links such as R & D, design, standards, logistics, marketing, brand and supply chain management, adapt to the new changes in the international industrial competition pattern, and speed up the development of new strategic industries such as energy conservation, environmental protection, new generation of information technology, biology, new energy, new materials and new energy vehicles, so as to create an innovative value chain and seize the commanding heights of international economic and technological competition.

Third, foster innovation driven mechanism.

With the weakening of the low cost advantages of production factors such as labor force in China, it is urgent to cultivate and establish a new competitive advantage based on scientific and technological innovation and human capital.

To this end, we should encourage enterprises to increase R & D investment and talent reserves, greatly enhance their capability of independent innovation, break through a number of key core technologies, and cultivate a group of enterprises with international competitiveness, independent intellectual property rights and dominant brands, encourage and support enterprises to develop pnational businesses and establish a global production and operation system.

At the same time, taking human resources development and human capital investment as the strategic focus, giving priority to developing education and training as an important way to enhance human capital, expanding vocational education, organizing and implementing the introduction of high-end talents, promoting the flow of talents to enterprises, and promoting the pformation from a large population country to a powerful human capital country.

Fourth, vigorously promote