Zheng Cotton Rebound Power Loss

The driving force for a strong rebound in cotton prices will tend to disappear. In the short run, the delayed issuance of sliding quasi tax quota has restrained cotton price declines to a certain extent. However, with the issuance of late quotas, Zheng cotton has seen a wave of make up and fall.

Dragged down by continued weakness in downstream demand. Zheng cotton rebound Nearly 5 months later, it fell back. At present, the acquisition of state reserves has come to an end. Under the background of no clear improvement in downstream demand, cotton prices in the future market are hard to say.

Sales of textiles are sluggish and demand is still sluggish.

Since 2012, the inventory of textile enterprises has been at a high level due to reduced orders and declining exports. To ease costs and financial pressure, textile enterprises can only cope with the reduction of cotton procurement and the extensive use of substitutes. Take the textile province of Fujian as an example, at present, the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth in Fujian textile enterprises is in an increasing trend. Cotton yarn inventory is about half a month. The inventory of grey cloth is about 3 months, which makes it difficult for enterprises to cash in. The stock of raw materials of cotton and polyester staple has been shortened to 10 days from a year ago. Most enterprises have increased the amount of polyester staple fiber and reduced the amount of cotton. After March, the domestic textile industry began to enter the peak demand season. But at present, the textile market is still stillness, and the signs of the peak season are not obvious.

The sale of textiles is not smooth, resulting in a few cotton lint transactions. Taking Fujian Changting as an example, the price of grade 329 lint to the factory price is 19800 yuan / ton, and 429 grade lint to the factory price 19000 yuan / ton, although close to or even lower than the state's purchase and storage price, but the volume is still less, most of the cotton enterprises still rely on the storage and storage, and some cotton which can not reach the standard of storage and purchase will enter the market.

　　 The influx of cheap cotton increased the pressure of inner cotton.

Because of the larger import profit margins, the pattern of massive imports of foreign cotton continued from September to the present. According to China Customs statistics, in February 2012, China imported more than 600 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of nearly 90% compared with January, a significant increase over 200% over the previous year. Since September last year, China's total import of cotton has reached 2 million 600 thousand tons in 2011/2012, an increase of about 80% over the same period last year.

　　 Slip tax quota is delayed, providing support.

Up to now, the import quota of cotton sliding tariff has not been released so far in 2012. domestic market The number. It is reported that some large importers recently failed to get the quota of cotton imports. A large number of India cotton, American cotton and West African cotton arrived in the bonded area in 2 and March. They were unable to enter the domestic market, and the deposits had already been spent. According to statistics, as of mid March, nearly 1 million tons of foreign cotton in China's main port have been hoarded in the bonded area. If there is no policy to catch up with the tax quota before May, the cost of warehousing, bank interest and purchase margin, and the payment of letters of credit and full payment will make some cotton importers feel pressure.

Due to the fact that the import quota of sliding tax is not likely to be issued in the short term, some cotton importers take the initiative to ask foreign businessmen to postpone the shipping date for 1 to 2 months or to ship in accordance with the contract date, making the current 3 to April shipments of cotton very few.

　　 Low planting area for long-term good cotton price

The 3 and April of each year are the key period for cotton sowing in the main producing areas of the country. Although the government has made a series of efforts to limit cotton prices and stabilize the cotton planting area, at present, compared with other grain crops, the grain and cotton income ratio is still low on the lowest protection price of other grain crops, and it is still unable to change the trend of a significant decrease in cotton planting area in the new year.

along with State Reserve purchase At the end of the year, the momentum to support a sharp rebound in cotton prices will tend to disappear. In the short term, the quasi tax quota will be delayed. To a certain extent, the cotton price will be reduced. However, with the issuance of the latter quota, Zheng cotton will have a wave of the market. In the medium to long term, 20400 of the new purchase and storage price has, to a certain extent, determined the bottom support of China's cotton prices in the medium and long term, and the cotton planting area in the new year has dropped significantly, which will form a strong support for the long-term trend of domestic cotton prices.