Short Term Energy Releases &Nbsp Initially; After The "Two Sessions", The Probability Of Market Rise Is Large.

Analysts pointed out that with the emergence of the stock index Yin long, many of the wrong species quickly rebounded, indicating that the initial release of short energy, the field to do more power to start recovery.

After a sustained rebound, the most obvious adjustment of A shares last week has been the rebound. On Wednesday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index fell 2.63% and 3.19% respectively, both of which hit the biggest drop in the year, and the turnover of the two cities sharply increased to 327 billion 700 million yuan. Panic selling was evident. As of Friday's close, the Shanghai composite index recovered 2400 points, the week fell 1.42%, and the market's internal willingness to recapture began to weaken.

Analysts pointed out that Recent market The deep adjustment is mainly due to technical adjustment, which is caused by a large profit margin. With the emergence of Long Yin stock index, many of the species have been rebounded quickly, indicating that the initial release of short energy, the field to do more power to start recovery.

　 "Two sessions" after rising probability

Historical data show that the "two sessions" market has a high probability of rising, accounting for 70.56% in the past 17 years, and the "two sessions" after the market is gratifying.

Statistics show that since 1995, the "two sessions" after 17 years of market discovery (statistics used the "two sessions" after the first phase of the high point is the statistical time node, ranging from 1 to 3 months), only in 2005 after the "two sessions" showed a downward trend, and the decline is only 2.99%, the remaining 16 years are now rising, the probability of 94.11% rise. Among them, the "two sessions" in 1997, the market rose by 34%. In the past three years, the "two sessions" in 2011 also rose 4.07%.

Overall, through historical data analysis, we can see that the probability of rising prices after the "two sessions" is much higher than that of the "two sessions". After finishing, A shares still hope to get out of the rising market.

　 The bottom line of the economy is clear.

Inflation is basically down, and economic growth is expected. The two quarter To achieve a soft landing. In February, CPI fell sharply to 3.2% last year, recovering the downward trend since August last year. The industry forecast that the first three quarters of this year CPI downward trend unchanged.

In terms of investment, the actual growth rate in the first two months is slightly higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year. The actual growth rate of consumption has dropped slightly, and the export growth rate has dropped considerably. The economy shows a steady trend of higher investment, stable consumption and low export. It is expected that the soft landing will finally reach the bottom in the two quarter.

Minsheng Securities believes that the logic of favorable market continuation and rebound still exists. The main reason for the recent market decline is mainly from two aspects: first, the strict wording of the real estate issue has caused the market to worry again about the real estate chain, and the two is the profit taking and adjustment requirements after the sharp rise in the previous period.

As a result, with the input of new fiscal funds, infrastructure and affordable housing construction, the downstream demand is expected to gradually improve, and the market valuation restoration market will continue to be staged. At the same time, with the emergence of Long Yin stock index, many of the species have been rebounded quickly, indicating that the initial release of short energy, the field to do more power to start recovery.

　 The central bank cleared the time window.

The biggest driving force for the rally from 2132 point is the fine-tuning policy, that is, the relaxation of monetary policy. At the end of last year, the A share market continued to plummet, making the market value prominent. Therefore, the resumption of inflation has become the main feature of the current rally.

It is worth mentioning that since the people's Bank of China decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio in February 20th, the time window for the central bank to reset again has been opened.

This week, the central bank achieved a net return of 57 billion yuan, and the central bank continued to stop for eleventh weeks. It is worth noting that the 20 billion yuan 91 day repo operation on Thursday, the winning rate fell from 3.16% to 3.14% before, down 2 basis points, breaking the stable situation in 7 months. The market expects the time window for the central bank to be cleared. On the same day, the bank's 7 day and 14 day repo rates fell below 3%, indicating that the market liquidity is relatively abundant.

Analysts pointed out that the 91 day repo rate sharply dropped two basis points to reduce the time window to open, the room for clearance is still very large, which will further improve the market liquidity release expectations.

In addition, the Ministry of commerce data show that in February this year, the actual use of foreign capital FDI decreased by 0.9% compared to the same period last year, a negative growth for four consecutive months. Some analysts expect that the central bank will lower the deposit reserve rate again before the May 1, and hedge against the decrease in foreign exchange reserves.

　 Strong overseas benefits A shares rebound

Overseas aspect Greece. The management was once judged to be a default by the international exchange and Derivatives Association and rating agencies. But last week, the second round of the 130 billion euros of aid loans was finally released smoothly, and the European debt crisis was alleviated to a certain extent. At the same time, the recent mild recovery of the US economy is good and the economic data are more optimistic. Last Tuesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25% and lower long-term interest rates to stimulate further economic recovery.

Affected by the above news, European and American overseas stock markets are booming. As of Friday's close, the Dow Jones index reported 13233 points, the S & P index reported 1401 points, and the intraday all hit a new high since 2008, and the NASDAQ index was 3060 new 11 year high. The FTSE European pioneer 80 index achieved a rare 8 Lian Yang, at 3418 points, a record high of nearly 8 months. Strong rebound in the overseas stock market will benefit the trend of A shares.

As for the market outlook, some analysts believe that the closing point for March 14th is 2391 points, which is not very high. Technically, Projected market The time between 2400 and 2478 may be relatively long. This cycle does not exclude 2 to 4 weeks, and the 13 week after the 2132 point rally is expected to return to the rally and push forward again to the 2675 point gap last year.