Five Pressures On Cotton Industry In 2012

In March 15th, the reporter learned from the Tianjin cotton association that faced with the changing situation of the cotton market, the cotton association reminded cotton and circulation enterprises to pay close attention to market changes at any time and do a good job in linking up the cotton market.

Experts said that since the beginning of this year, domestic and foreign cotton consumption situation has not improved, textile enterprises are in a sluggish sales, foreign cotton imports have increased significantly, domestic and foreign spreads have widened, domestic cotton market pressure has been greater, and the state has continued to purchase and store policies to support the smooth operation of cotton prices. Looking at the global economic situation in 2012, the cotton industry has developed textiles. clothing The export situation and the uncertainty of global cotton planting intentional area are more uncertain.

The cotton association of Tianjin held the 2012 annual cotton situation analysis and Symposium on diversified economy. The analysis showed that the development trend of China's cotton industry in 2012 was relatively heavy, mainly in 5 aspects:

First, the area of cotton planting is decreasing. Affected by cotton Price Cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting has been frustrated by the sharp fall in the cost of cotton growing and the decrease in returns. According to the China Cotton Association survey, the cotton planting intention in 2012 is expected to drop by 10.5%. According to the statistics of the Municipal Agriculture Bureau, the cotton planting intention in 2012 is estimated at 800 thousand mu, which is 11% less than that of the previous year. According to the association, the cost of storing and storing the new year has increased by 600 yuan per ton, but the problem of cotton planting is time-consuming and time-consuming, and the cost is still rising. Farmers think that planting cotton is not as good as planting corn, and the area of cotton planting is still decreasing.

Two, cotton yarn output continues to grow slightly. Macroeconomic regulation and control will speed up the development of textile industry to high speed, high yield, automation and intellectualization, and improve product quality and added value. As cotton prices return to normal levels, cotton spinning output will continue to grow slightly, and the annual cotton consumption will reach 11 million tons.

Three, the import of cotton imports showed an upward trend of decline. In 2011, 3 million 365 thousand tons of cotton imports were imported, an increase of 511 thousand tons compared with the same period, an increase of 18.5%. In view of the cotton harvest last year and the state's establishment of reserves, although the market consumption is weak, commodity cotton stocks have declined and domestic and foreign spreads have widened. It is estimated that the import growth of foreign cotton will drop this year and the import volume will be up to 3 million 500 thousand tons.

Four, cotton prices are running smoothly and fluctuating slightly. Due to the lack of driving force for price increases in the new year, temporary market consumption store up The price will become a "stabilizer" at home and abroad, supporting cotton prices at a reasonable level of about 22 thousand yuan / ton to remain relatively stable. The import inflation caused by oil price increase, and the third quantitative easing that the United States may launch, will drive up prices and market volatility.

Five, textile export growth showed a downward trend. Textile and garment exports in 2011 amounted to US $247 billion 960 million, an increase of 20.1% over the same period last year. Excluding price factors, the amount increased by only 1.14%, and the number of exports was negative. It is estimated that the growth rate of textile and clothing exports will drop to 15% in 2012.