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Condor: Return To The Half Year Line &Nbsp; Build Right Shoulder &Nbsp At The Head Shoulder Bottom; Share Holding Up.

2012/3/15 17:15:00 8

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Macro Prospect Economy Trend Stock Market

Macro money outlook in 2012

(1) Geopolitics: China and Russia coordinate the SCO to deal with the "NATO" hegemony of the US and Europe; Iran, the Middle East and North Africa are unstable; the United States has no intention of killing the enemy; Ma Ying-Jeou has continued to serve the Taiwan Straits for a long time; China and Japan have been unable to fight the fishing dispute;

Kim Jong-il suddenly collapsed and the situation on the peninsula was uneventful; in general, the world summit was changed in 2012.

Peace, development and cooperation have become the mainstream of the times.

(2)

economic outlook

The US unemployment rate is high and the European debt crisis is perplexed. China's housing prices, prices and local debts have become the main obstacles to economic development. The global economy is stagnant after the 2008 financial crisis.

As a global hegemony, the United States will adopt a low interest rate strategy before 2014, and the quantitative easing of the EU and Japan will force China's prudent monetary strength to be limited.

(3) macro orientation: "steady growth, structural adjustment, price control and domestic demand" as the main theme of economic work in 2012.

Gross domestic product

The annual growth rate will exceed 7.5%.

The environment at home and abroad decides that the central bank should continue to reduce the reserve requirement.

(4) stock market opportunities: the 10 year cycle of Shanghai stock index rose to zero.

equity market

The rise and fall is not necessarily related to economic growth.

Policy control and capital push have become the determinants of the rise and fall of A shares.

At the end of 2011, such as the Central Huijin, social security funds and other national main teams near the 2300 points, Guo Shuqing's "pension, provident fund" 4 trillion long-term investment in stock market recommendations and other landmark * highlights the bottom of the policy.

Combined with policy, valuation and technology research, the Shanghai Stock Index lingers between 2200 and 3000 in 2012.

(5) trader strategy: to lock in consumption, agriculture, water conservancy and the energy saving, environmental protection, electronic information, biological, high-end equipment, new materials, new energy, new energy vehicle emerging industries sector opportunities established in the 12th Five-Year plan.