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2012/3/14 21:07:00 7

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The possibility of raising prices: everything is ready, but there is still no wind.

Because scenic spots have certain public welfare characteristics,

Raise price

Behavior has been strictly controlled by the government.

According to the notice issued by the national development and Reform Commission in 2007 of the 5 month of the year on further improving the management of the ticket prices of the current tourist spots, the ticket prices for government pricing and government guided price management need to be adjusted due to the substantial increase in the cost of expenditure. They should be released to the public within two months before the price adjustment; the frequency of the same ticket price increase should not be less than 3 years; the adjustment range of the ticket price, 100 yuan (100 yuan) to 200 yuan (excluding 200 yuan), should not exceed the 25% of the original fare.

from

Lijiang Tourism

The price of the road ticket has been unchanged since 2003, and it has already met the three year price increase period stipulated by the NDRC. Secondly, the company carried out a large-scale technical pformation and shutdown of the snow mountain cableway from April 2010 to November, which may cause the increase of the cost of the cableway business and meet the relevant conditions of the NDRC to a certain extent. Thirdly, the cableway fare in essence is still different from the tickets of the scenic spots, and is not entirely restricted by the above-mentioned provisions of the NDRC; fourth, because of the poor external conditions such as high inflation in 2011, the difficulty in raising the price of the scenic spot is relatively large, but as the inflation began to drop somewhat, the market began to resume the anticipation of the increase in cableway ticket prices. First, the company's big snow mountain.

Therefore, the demand for cableway price increase is reasonable, and the possibility of raising the price is still large.

However, at present, CPI has rebounded in January and other background, coupled with the current promotion.

Consumption stimulating domestic demand

In the background, the price of cableway is still subject to the approval of the government. Whether the price increases, the time of raising prices, the extent of raising prices and the proportion of paying the environmental protection fund still depend on the attitude of the relevant government departments.

The company has been put in place since May 2011 when it was submitted to the price adjustment request.

Optimistic assumption that the company's price increase in June 2012 is expected to increase the company's 2012-2013 year EPS0.11/0.17 yuan.

Specifically, the company pointed out in the clarification Bulletin: if the application of the Jade Dragon Snow Mountain cableway price increase is approved by the relevant government authorities, and the fare increase to 200 yuan / person, according to the number of tourists receiving the 2011 ropeway, the company will earn about 26 million yuan and increase the net profit of the company by about 20 million yuan, accounting for 17.09% of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2011.

Therefore, based on our analysis and calculation, the company still assumes that the government raises the environmental protection fund in accordance with 15% of the fare increase.

Assuming that the ropeway raises the price, taking into account the time interval between two months to be announced to the public, we are optimistic that the company will raise its price in June 2012. As the 5-11 month is the peak season for tourism in Lijiang, we assume that the number of tourists in the 6-12 months will account for 70% of the total year, assuming that the price increase is 25%, that is, raising the price to 200 yuan. At the same time, assuming that the price increase will not be diverted, the company can increase the thickness of the company by 2012-2013 yuan EPS0.11 yuan /0.17 yuan.

What needs to be explained is that there may be some uncertainty about the proportion of the environmental protection fund extracted by the government.

Maintain the company's "recommended" rating

Although the price increase of Lijiang tourist snow mountain cableway has yet to be approved by the relevant government departments, we consider that the possibility of raising the price in the future is greater after considering the factors such as the time of raising the price of the cableway and the cost increase after the technological pformation of the cableway.

We expect the company's 2012/2013 EPS to be 0.92 and 1.09 yuan, respectively, without considering the price increase of the company's big snow mountain ropeway business, which correspond to the company's 22.8 and 19.1 times PE in 2012 and 2013, and the valuation has a certain margin of safety.

Taking into account "impression Lijiang" and after the show, as the performing arts project has been more mature and operating well, the net profit in the next two years will exceed the earnings forecast in the announcement is a big probability event.

At the same time, after the expansion of the impression Lijiang, the profitability of the "impression of Lijiang" has been greatly improved. (the number of seats increased, the number of tourists increased, the profit space increased. Meanwhile, the actors paid according to the performances, the cost was relatively lower, the profitability improved), and the company's hotel business profits were also growing. As well as the company's potential to further integrate regional tourism resources with the support of major shareholders (including the market expected Lugu Lake resources), we still maintained the company's "recommended" investment rating.