Upstream Blocked &Nbsp; Policy Game Intensified Short Term Differences.

Monday, Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities Slightly down, turnover returned to a higher level of 200 billion yuan. Plate observation, benefiting policy of paper printing, aerospace, military consumption and other sectors have been shown, but because of bancassurance, iron and steel, coal and oil heavyweight heavyweight market performance is low, dragging down the index low. On Monday, the two cities concluded a total turnover of 206 billion 600 million yuan, slightly larger than last Friday and returned to a higher level of over 200 billion yuan. After market outlook, stock index closed for 7 consecutive weeks after the Yang line, there is shock consolidation demand in the short term. But the main factors that affect the trend of the mid term market have not changed, and the rebound pattern since the beginning of the year is still expected to continue.

Probability of turbulence during the two sessions

First, the adjustment of the gross domestic product (GDP) target makes the market tend to weaken the policy turn. On Monday, Premier Wen Jiabao put forward the goal of GDP growth of 7.5% this year in his government work report. This is the first time that the GDP growth target has been lower than 8% in 8 years, which has symbolic significance for the market. It shows that management's attention to the "growth guarantee" will be preserved. Huge investment and loose monetary policy will not be reproduced after the financial crisis in 2008.

On the other hand, Premier Wen also said he wanted to keep General price level Basically stable, continue to control food prices too fast rising as the focus of price stability, the annual consumer price index (CPI) is controlled at 4%. Although it is widely expected that the CPI data in February will drop to about 3.5% as a result of the fall in food prices, the control target of CPI is still a long way to go due to the pressure of imported inflation caused by commodity prices. This also determines that the macro management policy of the management will only carry out appropriate fine-tuning under the premise of "steady growth" and "promoting transformation". Prudent monetary policy will continue. Judging from Monday, the expected drop in GDP target adjustment has had some impact on market confidence in the short term.

Secondly, the two sessions reiterated that strengthening the regulation of the real estate market will continue to postpone the recovery of the real estate market. Recently, a number of local governments' real estate policies showed tentative loosening, and last weekend there were news reports that the four major banks relaxed their first suite loan interest rates. Although some parts of the property market easing policy has been halted, but many property market turnover and the recent strong performance of the real estate sector shows that the market for the real estate industry has been significantly improved. The two sessions of the real estate regulation again stressed that the attitude of the central level for the real estate industry has not changed, the overall rebound in the property market is still uncertain, which to a certain extent, also hit the market's popularity.

Third, judging from the market performance of the past two sessions, the probability of shocks during the two sessions is greater. According to statistics, in the 14 session since 1998, there were 9 years in which the market index rose or fell between 3% and 64.29%, and 11 years, with an index of + 5%, accounting for 78.57%. Because all kinds of macroeconomic policies and industrial policies will be mentioned during the meeting, the intensification or change of policy expectation will have different effects on market sentiment, and the game of multiple influences exacerbates the divergence between the two sides of the market.

Mid term rebound pattern continues

First of all, domestic capital market institutional innovation to stimulate market sentiment, the market trend of upward trend in the short term is difficult to change. Sensitive investors have sniffed the coming information of the new round of institutional reform in the capital market, which will make China's capital market face a new round of institutional dividends. Market participants' expectations for the post market have improved markedly, boosting the market's sustained rise. At present, there is no big change in the factors that support the current rally, and the medium term rebound pattern is expected to continue.

Secondly, from the valuation point of view, with the index continues to rise, the valuation of A shares has increased. However, from a historical point of view, the valuation of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which is mainly based on blue chips, is still at a historical low, and the investment value of blue chips is still more significant.

Third, in the external market, the US economy is recovering moderately, Europe. monetary policy Continued easing, the global liquidity expectations rise, driven the recent performance of the peripheral stock market, and has a positive impact on A shares.

On the whole, the index is in the rising channel, and the market sentiment is getting warmer. But in the short term, the differences between the two sides will increase. The index will need to sort out the demand, gain profits and unwind the funds coming out of the intensive areas.

From the operational point of view, in the short term, we suggest that we should watch more and move less and pay close attention to several investment lines. First of all, economic restructuring is an important topic for the two sessions. The relevant sectors such as energy conservation, environmental protection, printing and printing consumption and so on are worthy of attention. Secondly, the industry with increasing investment and support should be paid attention to, such as aerospace, military, education, culture, public utilities and so on. Third, the relevant sectors involving the livelihood security of state-owned enterprises and the transformation of capital market system, such as transportation insurance, insurance, etc., can be properly paid attention to.