Rational View Of The 07 Fur Market Fission
2007 after the Spring Festival, prices of fox, raccoon dog, mink and Rex Rabbit appeared a sharp drop in price. The decline was once 40%--50%, and the fur market suffered unprecedented damage.
It has caused heavy losses to practitioners. According to information from China fur Forecast Forum, only 100 million yuan of fur and professional villages in Lixian County east of Hebei province has been lost.
When the 07 fur industry is suffering, it is worse that the state has issued several regulations to regulate the development of fur industry, such as prohibiting the export of Fox Skins and mink skins.
The export tax rebate for fur garments has dropped by 5% from 13%, and so on. Cruel reality is mercilessly placed in front of practitioners.
How to cope with the fur industry? How can fur industry get out of difficulties and embark on the road of sustainable development?
First, the rex rabbit skin should not blindly invest in Rex rabbit skin industry for decades.
Finally, the fruit has been restored to fruition.
Since the beginning of this century, it has really stepped onto the fur stage, becoming the leader of the low-grade leather, and has provided more choices for fur designers and consumers. It is precisely because of the slow opening of the commercialization door of the rex rabbit skin that it has attracted numerous Rex Rabbit funds to flow into the Rex rabbit skin market.
The most attractive thing for farmers is not only Rex rabbits, but also the alluring advertising slogans of more than one year, and the unprecedented Association of the market.
However, the manipulation rights of the Rex Rabbit market are not only farmers.
There is also the willingness of processing enterprises and consumers.
In this year, the price of mink is very low.
Does a rational consumer spend 3000 yuan on a rex rabbit fur coat or $6000 for a black mink coat?
This simple data comparison suggests that every consumer will have a choice.
In the past, Rex rabbit skin was suitable for China's national conditions.
This can not help but ask, is China's national conditions big investment?
Slow effect and low output?
There are both advantages and disadvantages in everything, and I seldom see the perfect person. I saw the crying man who sold the rex rabbit skin and lost money in the Shang Village fur market of Hebei.
The advanced entry of an industry has the responsibility and morality to inform the market risk. But in reality, we lack this kind of business ethics.
The author often says to the consultant: "if you look at the furnishings and clothing, food and shelter of the employees, you will know the profit and development prospects of the industry you consulted.
This method is very effective and very direct.
It is reported that the breeding rate of Rex Rabbit has been decreasing sharply in Shandong Province, but the meat rabbit culture has become popular again.
This phenomenon is nothing more than two points: first, the profit of Rex rabbit skin has shown a slight profit.
Two, Shandong is a big province of traditional meat rabbit culture, and has certain advantages in terms of sales and price.
We need to pay attention to everything and pursue a balance.
Recently, a large number of articles on the Internet have appeared in the rex rabbit skin. The introduction of all the articles is nothing but the current market for fox, raccoon and marten, which makes more funds flow to the market of Rex rabbit skin.
So that the rex rabbit skin investment bubble.
This is a joke which is more maneuverable and encouraging than a few years ago when a director of Agriculture said that the rex rabbit skin would replace fox fur.
If we only listen to some unilateral propaganda and cause turbulence in the market of the rex rabbit skin, it will be the sadness of our fur and leather industry.
One of the characteristics of a mature industry is the stability of commodity prices. The rex rabbit skin is a temporary renewable resource, and its price is speculative, but the price is not single.
After the Spring Festival, the cat skin that has been listed on the market is like a flash in the pan, and it has disappeared in the Shang Village market recently.
It is well known that cat skin is unable to export to the EU for 09 years. The largest consumption space for the cat skin, which is more than ten yuan and twenty yuan, will undoubtedly be pferred to the domestic consumer market.
Cat fur, which is dominant in price, is a match for the rex rabbit skin.
At the moment, the rex rabbit skin is also pursuing the existence of pluralism. It is alleged that the rex rabbit skin has been used in the lining of leather shoes. At present, the statistics of raw leather consumption in China are in a state of chaos.
The competition between Rex rabbit skin and other low-grade skins has appeared again and again.
It is concluded that there will be more restrictive and refined features in the use of raw skins.
Two, the raccoon skin market is in the doldrums. This year's raccoon skin prices are low, so that the raccoon skin market temporarily can not get out of the haze.
With the increasing funding of raccoon skins practitioners, the raccoon skin market will not be able to avoid the trend of profit diversification.
On the one hand, the color of raccoon skin is less than that of Fox and marten, and the market is highly operational.
The undulating degree of raccoon skin is far greater than that of other kinds of fur. Leather traders like the wave of price. A stagnant market does not stimulate the speculators. The market risk is directly proportional to capital investment. This is the main reason for the increasing number of raccoon operators in recent years.
On the other hand, because of the continuous pparency of raccoon skin information, more and more attention has been paid to the raccoon skin industry, and there will be more capital accumulation in breeding.
Anti risk ability and self strength have also been enhanced unprecedentedly.
The formation of the above strength and contrast will make the raccoon skin market develop toward a stable trend towards the past.
But in terms of profit margins, it will not be reduced to a similar dilemma with Rex rabbit skins. For example, take ten thousand sheets of leather as an example, the price of Rex rabbit skin is small, and a profit is only a few yuan, so the profit of leather merchants is tens of thousands of yuan.
However, the performance of raccoon skin is not so bad. A raccoon dog's profit of ten yuan and 20 yuan is not much attractive to leather merchants.
We do not need to think more about the ten thousand raccoon skin profit margins than the rex rabbit skin.
Many people have asked me whether scale farming will be profitable. This problem has great flexibility in practice. When the market is bad, the probability of raising more money will be much larger than that of small farmers. Therefore, it is very important to master the timing of sale.
If you want to take the initiative of the market in your own hands, you must have strong financial support. The authors here advise those friends who want to rely on the scale of raising raccoons for development. Before the necessary expenditure, there must be a guarantee fund to cushion the pressure and impact of the market on themselves.
Never let a small soldier cross the river, but only know that one can go forward and leave a retreat for his career.
I once said that when the raccoon skin market changes, the white raccoon skin will zombie return to its soul.
Facts have proved the author's prediction and judgement.
At present, the price of white raccoon skin is rising. It is proper to keep a cool head.
The author of Shandong Weishan County Wang Jieming said that you can stir fry, but not fry.
Now, the domestic market's speculation on white raccoon skin is not really a supply and demand relationship, but a result of profit making. Of course, it is not possible to exclude the increase in the use of white raccoon skin by processing enterprises.
In terms of quantity, raccoon skin is a very clear white tone. In cold winter, the use of white tone will be rejected by most consumers.
And just as a bright spot for publicity, will the consumer's increasingly mature consumption concept be accepted?
I believe that with the constant deterioration of raccoon skin prices, the raccoon skin source will also be hyped up for some time.
Once the raccoon skin market is warm, all defects of the raccoon skin will be exposed to the market mercilessly.
I dare not say here that the white raccoon skin is a piece of skin that has nothing to do. The maturity of the product is the only way for the future of the raccoon dog skin.
The raccoon skin market will not die out. This is not only the existence of a huge consumer market, but also the support of many fur traders.
According to an editor of a newspaper, I told him that only more than 1000 raccoon skin brokers in Leting County, Tangshan City, Hebei, were active in the fur market of all the country.
Some time ago, some people said that raccoon skins were not worth using and so on. They hoped that this article would give an answer to the vast number of raccoon skins practitioners.
3, the fox market is expected to recover. When many people are worried about the price of raccoon skin this year, they are also worried about the market. Because people used to analyze and judge the future of the color fox fur market only from the market prospect, the confused mood of the fox fur market is understandable when the selling season of the fox fur is coming.
You know, this year may be the biggest listing year since the color fox fur speculation. It is hard to estimate the number of people involved.
If the price is ideal, the speculation of color fox species will last for a long time. Otherwise, it will likely become a passer-by like the White Mink hype.
According to the information currently available, the hype of colorful fox species is likely to continue in the northeast and the whole country, but there are also some problems.
At the beginning of the propaganda, the author put forward a policy of "slow down" clearly, allowing the market to have a time to accept, so that the processing enterprises could have a time to develop and popularize, otherwise they would probably choke off their food.
Cause undue situation.
The price depends on the difficulty and quantity of breeding, the interests of the leather merchants, and the consumption demand. The price of the black cross fox fur is not very high. We should be cautious when the selling point of the market is coming.
Diligence, diligence and diligence can lead to the right theory.
Fox fur is not the only fox fur market, but it can make fox fur avoid long-term downturn. This is the important value of fox fur.
Looking back at the blue fox fur, snow fox skin, and some time ago, friends from Jining, Shandong province called. Their farmers could describe the blue fox fur and the price of snow fox when they could get warmer. When they were more than 60 years old, they looked at the author's articles every day and carefully analyzed the hope that the fox fur market could get out of the trough one day earlier.
In this period of time, the market recovery of snow and blue fox will take some time.
In the past, a lot of blue and snow Fox Skins could not be digested all the way out, from last year's slump to small fluctuations that indicated a lack of market power. If the market demand was discarded, the leather merchants would choose to reactivate the fox market later in the interest needs, because the skins might take some measures after knowing the size of the skin.
What I remind here is that the value of hope is not too great.
The reason is that some experienced farmers still have a large number of snow fox skins and blue fox skins in their hands. If the price goes up too fast, it may exist objectively, and will inevitably cause market pressure.
From these years, fox fur breeding industry sped up the analysis of imported blue fox at any cost to make an analysis. The floating space of snow and blue fox skin will not be too big. Can people get some enlightenment between falling and rising?
It would be a mistake if the old person surfing the Internet as an industry awareness raised a lot.
You can go to the following professional farming village to see, there are a lot of people who depend on experience.
The forecast for the market is only a matter of what an expert has said on the Internet and newspapers, and how the market has been going on last year.
In particular, as the market's unpredictable fur industry, many factors may affect the fluctuation of fur prices.
Big to the national policy, little to gossip, fur market is simply not stock market, frying and frying are very common.
Last year and this year, the price of silver blue fox fur was so high that many people made a big profit in frying the skin, resulting in a significant increase in output this year.
As I have said, the market is not infinite. When the market supply and demand is tilted, not everyone knows what will happen. This requires practitioners to be soft and hardworking.
On the one hand, we should keep pace with the times, and on the other hand we should be cautious.
This degree is relatively difficult to grasp. Improving the market's observation ability and thinking ability is one of the skills that practitioners should possess.
Here I again criticize the domestic fur website: in terms of market quotations, many websites say orders, orders are trade secrets, and there are many processing enterprises in the fur industry. The leakage of an enterprise's order quantity does not represent the processing capacity of all enterprises. How can each enterprise's business philosophy, development direction, profit and customer base be exactly the same?
We should analyze the essence of fur market and stop ordering orders everywhere.
Four, the marten market will change. In the fur market forecast, the marten market price fluctuation is the most difficult to grasp.
The reason for this is very complicated.
There is a leading factor in the Danish auction as well as an increasing influence of China's mink market strength.
Denmark takes the color mink as its object of development. China's standard mink is the main player, and the constant change of consumers' needs for their own personality has led to the breakdown of this balance.
This is also the main reason why the price of China's mink plummeted this year, and even to the Danish auction.
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