Forecast Of Cotton Purchase And Storage In The Year Of Dragon

It is estimated that the cotton purchase and storage price in the new year will be 21200 yuan / ton, which will be sold at a fixed price and at least 2 million 500 thousand tons.

If the new purchase and storage policy is in line with expectations, there will still be room for uplink cotton prices.

In order to stabilize cotton planting area and maintain

Interpretation of the policy of collecting and storing over the years

Since 2004, the state has implemented nine cotton purchase and storage policies, and the intensity is stronger.

First, the number of purchase and storage increases gradually.

In the year of 2011/2012, the purchase and storage in an unlimited manner was unprecedented, and the daily storage and purchase plan was adopted to flexibly adjust the storage and storage rhythm.

As of February 9th, the total storage capacity in 2011/2012 was 2 million 510 thousand tons. It is estimated that by March 31st, the storage capacity will reach 3 million tons, accounting for more than 40% of the 2011/2012 annual output. This will greatly ease the supply pressure caused by the increase in production this year.

Second, the purchase and storage mainly use two modes of paction, one is the bidding paction, the other is the fixed price paction.

The highest bid price has been set up in the bidding mode, that is, "top and bottom, not bottom", but there have been new changes since the beginning of 2008/2009.

The purchase and storage of 2011/2012 is the second time in a fixed price way. Since the purchase and storage paction started in September, the spot price has ended from the beginning of March.

Obviously, in the declining market, fixed price paction has stronger psychological support for the market.

The purchase and storage will restore the cotton price in the down channel, or increase slightly.

The support role of 2011/2012 for cotton price is the most obvious.

In 2011, the cotton market showed a continuous downward trend under the influence of multiple factors, such as the expected increase in production, unfinished product sales, inventory backlog, macroeconomic regulation and monetary policy continued tightening, and the European debt crisis, which fell by 40% compared with the previous high.

The purchase and storage policy of 2011/2012 has become the only support for the cotton market. Since the purchase and storage policy was launched in September 2011, cotton prices began to stabilize and stabilize.

2012/2013 annual storage policy speculation

Estimation of purchase and storage price and pricing method.

In 2011, the state set a price of 19800 yuan / ton for cotton purchase and storage according to grain and cotton price and processing fee.

According to the data, the cotton wheat ratio at 1:10 will basically guarantee that the cotton planting area is relatively stable.

In March 2011, the purchase price of wheat was 0.92 yuan / Jin, according to the ratio of 1:10, plus the labor cost of 800 yuan / ton, the purchase and storage price was set at 19800 yuan / ton.

Assuming that the reserve price in 2012 is still calculated according to this method, in view of the newly released wheat purchase price of 1.02 yuan / Jin, the price of cotton purchase and storage in 2012 is expected to be 21200 yuan / ton, which is higher than that of 2011/2012, which will boost market confidence.

Fixed price pactions are more effective in supporting the market, and 2012/2013 is expected to continue trading at a fixed price.

Estimate the scale of storage and purchase.

It is estimated that the scale of 2012/2013 will be decided according to the number, schedule and storage capacity of the state in 2012.

If 2011/2012's annual storage capacity reached 3 million tons, plus early news that the Treasury purchased 1 million tons of cotton, the stock will reach 4 million tons, and the national storage capacity will almost reach saturation. Therefore, before the purchase and storage, the state will sell the State Treasury cotton to the market in batches.

In 2011, domestic cotton production is expected to reach 7 million 300 thousand tons.

The state will continue to implement the purchasing and storage policy in 2012/2013, which undoubtedly has a strong support for cotton prices. But the specific impact depends on the rules and regulations of the official collection and storage policy, including the price, scale and implementation progress.

If the purchasing and storage policy in 2012/2013 is in line with expectations, cotton prices will still have upward space, and cotton futures prices are expected to rise to 25000 yuan / ton.