Polyester Will Start Production Reduction In 2008

In 2008, a new page opened, and polyester industry and polyester market entered a new year. Looking back on the PTA market in the past year, it was sad and miserable. The MEG market was vigorous and vigorous. After enjoying the most beautiful time for half a year, the four seasons finally began to experience the severe winter and cold weather that had not been felt for a long time. After nearly two years' honeymoon period, the factory began to enter into a loss or a capital preservation business under the pressure of downstream. If the cost of MEG is not lowered as soon as possible, the cash flow of polyester factories will continue.

　　目前聚酯工廠的MEG成本都是在12月的現貨均價1550美元/噸附近，即便考慮進部分國內合同貨成本13500元和部分現貨低價成本13000元附近，總體的聚酯工廠目前生產用的MEG成本都在13500元附近，而如果加上7400元的PTA成本(目前PTA外盤合同貨與現貨價格都在840美元附近甚至偏上，考慮進部分內盤合同貨價格和現貨價格，中國的聚酯工廠的平均PTA成本都在7400元甚至以上)，因此聚酯工廠的原料成本都在11000元附近，而目前主流的切片價格在10200元，POY150D價格在11500元，DTY150D價格在13000元，短纖價格僅在11400元/噸送到，切片虧損最為嚴重，基本每噸現貨銷售虧損在1200元左右，POY虧損也在600元/噸以上，DTY虧損不少于200元/噸，短纖虧損也在400元/噸以上，如此巨大的虧損也是近兩年來聚酯工廠沒有遇到過的。

Judging from the current situation, the cost of raw materials of PTA may only be difficult to fall. Therefore, it is necessary to rely on the reduction of raw material costs, and only hope that the spot price of MEG will drop as soon as possible, so as to pave the way for the low MEG contract in January.

　　從目前MEG外盤價格1450美元和內盤價格12700元/噸的水平來看，MEG如果保持目前的水平或是繼續下跌，MEG的原料成本有望在一月份下調1000元/噸左右，即聚酯工廠的原料成本有下降340元左右的可能，但這是建立在長短絲和切片價格不跌的基礎之上，但即便聚酯產品價格不跌，切片，POY，短纖仍不能擺脫虧損的厄運，DTY價格還有可能基本翻身解放，因此除非MEG價格再度下調1000元左右跌至12000元以上和1400美元以下，否則的話，聚酯工廠仍只有停產檢修上進一步打擊MEG市場，下以遏制聚酯產品的下跌之勢，雖然停產檢修對于聚酯產品價格的傷害短期存在，但從長遠來看，和PTA工廠被逼入停減的絕境一樣，聚酯工廠的停產檢修力度加大是唯一可以解決上下游矛盾和降低成本改善供求關系的不二良方。

Further analysis of why the polyester factories need to increase the intensity of the reduction, and the poor demand for terminals is the root cause of the problem.

If the loom start rate has been maintained at present level, if the macroeconomic control of low value-added textile exports will not change, if the RMB appreciation rate should be increased, if the export tax rebate may continue to reduce to reduce the trade surplus, if a large number of small and medium-sized textile enterprises are closed down, perhaps the textile market in 2008 may come true winter, and the polyester industry can not escape the cold wave.

At least from the bottom of the month, under the premise of large loom shutdowns, the demand for polyester products is unlikely to increase in January. With the current stock of polyester products at a high level, and the sale of short staple products and FDY/DTY products at such a low level, it is advisable to increase the intensity of production cuts.

From the current operation of polyester factories in China, there are many polyester factories that have stopped production or are ready to stop production, but there are also some of the pre production stop pet plants to start again. At present, many sets of devices such as road far, prosperous, Anbang, Hengli, Shenyang and so on have been resumed. (Anbang 200 thousand ton / year polyester direct spinning device has been stopped and overhauled in December 22nd, and it is expected to start next year around 3 January next year).

The equipment currently being overhauled or planned for maintenance in January includes: Ningbo Zhuo Cheng chemical fiber set of 100 thousand tons large polyester plant, scheduled for forty days in January 2008.

Zhejiang Rongsheng two phase two sets of 200 thousand tons of polyester plant plans to stop for two weeks from January 10th, a phase of a large polyester plant will also arrange parking.

A set of 200 thousand tons of polyester plant in Tianyuan, Hangzhou is scheduled for half a month or so in January 5th.

Another factory has the intention of overhauling.

Zhangjiagang Xinxin chemical fiber set of 80 thousand tons large polyester plant has begun to drop to about 6-7 percent. During the Spring Festival, it has decided to arrange parking inspection and maintenance. The market for specific maintenance depends on market factors.

Jiangyin Huahong 200 thousand tons large polyester plant direct spinning spun short fiber has planned to arrange parking inspection at the end of January. The time is expected to be 20 days or more.

Xiamen Xiang Lu 360 thousand ton polyester plant is scheduled to start for twenty days in January 2008.

Guangzhou Pan Asia 200 thousand tons / year PET bottle device due to power problems at the end of November, the load gradually reduced until all of the car maintenance.

Plans to resume driving in January 5th.

Zhejiang Kang Xin group originally planned to produce 200 tons / day POY production line on its existing polymerization plant by the end of the month, but due to poor market conditions, it actually only opened 50 tons / day POY volume.

Jiangsu Sheng Hong 200 thousand ton direct spinning polyester has stopped on the 15 th.

Xinjiang Tun he 60 thousand ton / year PET bottle device was stopped in mid 12, and the maintenance is expected to last for about a month.

Xiaoshan Hongjian set up a 250 thousand ton large polyester plant, which is scheduled for half a month or so from December 27th.

In Shaoxing, a set of 180 thousand tons of installation plan for the prophase parking of the textile mill was stopped until the end of the year, and 60 thousand tons of main production cations were also in the parking, and the other 180 thousand tons of equipment were running low.

The yield of Shaoxing Far East staple decreased by more than 100 tons / day.

In Cixi, after the pformation of the 150 thousand tons large polyester plant, the bottle changing device is still in the parking.

Jiangyin Cheng Xing has a 200 thousand ton bottle flake device which has been stopped due to a fault. The parking time may be about three months.

Changzhou Huarun two sets of 140 thousand tons of bottle production device has been overhauled, and is expected to resume driving early in the month.

While many of the above devices are being cut down, a few new devices will also have to be noticed in the market, including the Jiangsu DESAY chemical fiber 200 thousand ton PET plant direct spinning short line project postponed in January 18th.

Tiansheng group Yifeng chemical fiber one phase 200 thousand tons polyester project has also been successfully launched and put into production.

To a certain extent, the driving of the two sets of large devices will also weaken the crackdown on the raw materials market and the support for the downstream market to some extent. Although their product lines are different, they will take the road of differentiation and fine denier yarn, but we should know that polyester production is no profit at present. Whether from the level of money making or the current supply and demand relationship of the entire polyester industry, the choice of the current time to enter the already bloody Chinese polyester market seems to be a bit out of date, rather a bit of killing each other.