A Shares Are More Likely To "Rise" After The Festival.

Thanks to the US's interest in maintaining ultra-low interest rates, Hongkong equity market With the beginning of the year, the Hang Seng Index rose two consecutive trading days last Thursday and Friday, with a cumulative gain of 1.95%. Insiders pointed out that the opening of Hong Kong stocks has a certain boost to the A share trend, especially the state-owned enterprises index has increased by 2.69% during this period, which helps the stock index continue to break through the 60 day moving average pressure. A shares Judging by market trend, Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities will usher in "Dragon Rising" after the festival. probability Still larger.

　 Look at 2350 points after the festival

As the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities get out of the "rabbit tail" market before the festival, the Shanghai stock index has returned to the top 2300 points. This also makes investors expect the market to start again in the early years of the dragon market. Insiders pointed out that the current positive A share market factors are gathering, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities still have room for further improvement after the holidays.

Guang Fa securities analyst Wang Licai pointed out that although the amount of A shares market has not yet been opened, the pre session stock index has been extraordinarily strong, which in fact reflects the market capital's attitude towards the post holiday market. From the basic point of view, the official PMI data and HSBC PMI data recovered at the same time last December showed that the overall economic situation in China has stabilized, and the operating environment of listed companies is expected to turn better. On the capital side, the central bank made a total of 360 billion yuan in the last week before the holiday, which is equivalent to a 0.5 percentage point deposit reserve ratio, which has supplemented market funds to a certain extent. On the news side, recently, management recently issued a speech to boost confidence in the stock market, and began to introduce specific policies and measures to give confidence to the stock market. In addition, during the long holidays of Spring Festival, the stock market in Hongkong and Europe and the United States were in a strong upswing, which caused more external stimulus to the A share market. It is expected that the A share market will remain on the upward trend after the holiday.

Haitong Securities analyst Yuan Hao said, statistics show that in the past 21 years, the A share market in February rose 16 times, the number of times fell only 5 times, that is, the probability of market rise in February is 76.2%, the probability of decline is only 23.8%. From the point of view of the operation of the stock line, the volume of the stock index is up and down, and the volume and price relations remain good. A good volume price relationship shows that the stock index has been free from the adjustment trend since last April. There is no bad news that can cause direct impact on the A share market during the Spring Festival. Therefore, in the short term, it is expected that after the holiday, the stock index will continue to operate on the channel. The track on the road is near 2350.

　　 Structural opportunities are the key.

The industry believes that for the A share market after the Spring Festival, the index level should be strategically optimistic, but the grasp of the direction of stocks still needs a lot of effort to judge.

Wang Licai pointed out that looking back to the pre harvest year of the rabbit harvest market, the market has been able to receive red packets, one is the long fall will rise, extremes will be reversed, the two is favorable, and leading the market to support the popularity. And once the market style is formed, it will not be easy to change. Therefore, the predominant financial, real estate and nonferrous metals undervalued blue chips will still be the protagonists of the post holiday market. If there are substantial gains to push the market upward, the related blue chip stocks will definitely rise again. In addition, energy, transportation, building materials and other cyclical varieties are also showing signs of recovery before the holiday. If the market rebound can continue, the valuation of cyclical varieties is expected to be reset. It is suggested that investors should continue to configure cyclical industries such as brokerages, railway equipment and building materials after the holiday. shares 。

Yuan Hao also believes that the recent introduction and implementation of the new stock market policy is conducive to the further improvement of the market's pessimistic expectations, and the possibility that the market will enter the medium term rally will continue to increase. But before the market can be fully liberalized, structural opportunities will remain the focus of investors' attention. Investors are advised to pay attention to undervalued and low price earnings ratio stocks. When the annual disclosure period of the annual report is coming, investors should still identify the varieties with the undervalued varieties and the growth of their performance.
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