Textile And Clothing: 2012, Looking For Light With Black Eyes.

In 2011, the textile and garment industry was faced with the common influence of new and old factors.

One of the old factors is RMB appreciation.

Cotton prices fell sharply after a record high in March 2011, down nearly 40%.

The trend of stabilizing cotton prices has been rising since August 17th.

The country's open purchase and storage price of 19800 yuan / ton has a certain support and support for cotton price.

Subsequently, cotton prices continued to drop to around 19000 yuan / ton, forming a certain trend of stabilization.

In 2011, before and after the export industry was high and low, the annual export volume is expected to be around 15%.

Among them, the main driving force is raising prices.

In 2011, the growth of domestic textile and garment retail sales was mainly driven by raising prices. Since August, the negative effects of price increases on sales have begun to show.

Coupled with the warm winter in the southern part of the country this year, the decline in economic growth slowed down the consumption of residents. In October, the growth of retail sales of 100 enterprises was the first time below 20%, reaching 16.73%, and in November it was 10.26%, and sales decreased by 1.82% over the same period last year.

Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate near 20 thousand / tonnes.

The prospect of international economic recovery in 2012 is full of uncertainty and weak international demand.

Orders for export enterprises are reduced, and short orders are the main ones.

Labor costs continue to rise, the appreciation of the renminbi and the pressure of capital. The export manufacturing process will inevitably be accompanied by the failure of small and medium-sized enterprises with numerous pformation failures and the concentration of resources to the leading enterprises with bargaining power.

For export enterprises, we think that judging the prosperity cycle mainly depends on three factors: market expectations for raw material prices, inventory and actual downstream demand.

At present, the market does not anticipate soaring raw materials in 2012. Stocks are still at a high level. The actual downstream demand is still weak. At present, it seems that the business cycle of 2012 is much harder to improve. We give the "neutral" rating to the textile and garment export manufacturing industry in 2012.

In the long term, with the consolidation of resources and the improvement of the business cycle, we can focus on the quality of leading enterprises such as "Lu Tai" and "Hua Fu color spinning".

In view of the long-term trend of China's economic development, the process of urbanization and consumption upgrading, domestic brand retailers have long been optimistic.

Judging from the 2012, the current macroeconomic growth and consumption slowdown in 2012 are expected to be the same. Consumer confidence index is on the decline, which will affect the consumption of brand clothing to a certain extent.

Specifically, in 2011, the high growth rate of the brand retail enterprises largely depended on the increase in prices, and the factors of raising prices in 2012 would be significantly weakened.

Next year, the overall growth rate of the brand retail industry will decline.