A Winter Calls For Re Design

Three years after the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, China

The bear market is more than three years ago.

From 998 in 2005 to 1664 in 2008, and then in 2011.

Since the fourth quarter of 2011, fewer than 6% of the companies listed in the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities have risen in share prices, while in the past three months, more than 30% of the shares have reached 463. In 2008, most investors were caught up again in a bear market.

This time, the number of investors increased sharply compared with three years ago.

Reporters visited a number of securities business departments in Beijing and found that there was no popularity in the retail Hall of the business department.

After the recovery in 2009 and the year-round shock in 2010, although China's stock market was slowed down by the domestic economic development and the turbulence of the international financial market in 2011, China's economy is still growing steadily. Why do people feel that the market environment today is more than that of the bear market brought about by the crisis three years ago?

"Three high expansion" and "shareholders' running away"

From 4 trillion and 500 billion yuan at the end of 2008 to 16 trillion and 500 billion yuan at the end of 2011, the market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen two increased explosively.

At the same time, the market paction capital for such large-scale stock supply has increased, but the negative interest rate, the property market restriction and so on have not given rise to the "move" of the deposit to the stock market.

The capital market has not increased proportionately, indicating the imbalance between market supply and demand.

This is different from the listing of many super large cap stocks such as PetroChina and China Shenhua before the last fall cycle. This year, a group of "low gold content" enterprises listed on the small and medium sized board and gem, giving investors new doubts about the expansion of the stock market.

"Three high" expansion will kill shareholders.

Healthy life, away from the "three high".

A well-known analyst in the securities industry has come to the helplessness of the high price earnings ratio, the high issue price and the high level of fund-raising for all kinds of small and medium sized IPO.

On the other hand, in this round of macroeconomic regulation and control cycle, there is no way to get shareholders and executives faster than to reduce shares of listed companies, and the stock market has become "ATM".

Frequent crisis of confidence in stock market

In the first half of 2011, the injection of iron ore, rare earth ore and gold and silver ore into the listed company became the most popular thing for shareholders to do.

However, with the fact that many capital operations are rarely realized, a series of "diving competitions" appear in the market. The continuous limit of stocks such as Chongqing beer and Three Gorges new stock has led to serious losses for retail investors and institutional investors.

Some market participants pointed out that the listed companies have already controlled a large number of shares not only after the split share structure reform, but also are holding the initiative of the company's management and management. This not only makes it easier for small and medium investors to take the last stick, but also makes the fund investors and other institutional investors who are not very strong in the market have a more passive position in the market.

At the end of the year, several cases of insider trading of fund companies, securities companies, government officials and business executives announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, on the one hand, showed the determination of regulators to crack down on the illegal activities of securities and futures. On the other hand, they also showed another trust crisis faced by the strong institutional investors.

Quick success and instant benefit are far from the past.

Economist Li Xunlei once said that one of the characteristics of China's stock market is the high turnover rate, which largely shows the speculative mentality of Chinese investors. Many market participants told reporters that the huge structural difference of A shares currently reflects a serious speculative mentality than the previous bear market. At present, the average price earnings ratio of the stock market in Shanghai stock market is only 13.2 times, but the average p / E ratio of Shenzhen SME board and GEM stocks is as high as 27.6 times and 37 times. At the end of 10 in 2008, the average price earnings ratio of the Shanghai stock exchange board and Shenzhen SME board fell to about 15 times.

What is even more worrying is that at present, the investment mentality of quick success and instant benefit has spread from the two tier market to the primary market. The packaging of various Vc firms for listed companies not only distorts the value of excellent innovative enterprises, but also deeply affects the healthy operation of the IPO market.

"Ten years of zero rise led to dissatisfaction, mainly because of market positioning problems.

If dividends are paid, stock prices will not increase and they will make money. "

Societe Generale economist Lu commissar believes.

In November 2011, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it was systematically sorting out and studying the dividend policy and promoting the rationalization of dividend policy.

Song Fengming, a professor of finance at Tsinghua University, said that the Chinese stock market should take the dividend of listed companies as the main axis to carry out a new round of institutional reform, so that the stock market can be pformed from a casino that investors fight against each other into a real investment market.

A new cash dividend system must be established.

Many market frontline people believe that in order to change the way of survival of China's stock market, the institutional investors and listed companies in the market still need to pform their scale and structure, and at the same time, they need strong institutional guarantee of regulators.