The RMB Exchange Rate Has Changed To &Nbsp Since The Exchange Rate Reform.

Strong rebound after a continuous decline, the market dispelled the previous negative Expect

Why RMB exchange rate rise again at the end of the year?

In December 27th, the RMB exchange rate rose again, according to the latest data from the China foreign exchange trading center. exchange rate The median price was 6.3152, which resulted in the exchange rate reform. New high 。

New high since foreign exchange reform

The day before December 26th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 1 yuan to 6.3167 yuan, second only to the highest of 1 yuan in November and 6.3165 yuan in November. On the 27 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3152, creating a new high since the reform.

Today, 2011 is about to end. If the RMB exchange rate does not show a clear return, the statistics show that the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar in 2011 will be nearly 5%.

Analysts said that at the end of the year, the RMB exchange rate once again challenged the high exchange rate point, indicating that the RMB exchange rate is still strong. Since then, there have been a series of negative factors, such as negative growth in foreign exchange, negative growth in macroeconomic growth, difficult retreat of the macroeconomic growth rate and strong anticipation of hot money outflow. Since November, the spot exchange rate has been touched down for 12 consecutive trading days, triggering some investors' concerns about the possible depreciation of the people's currency in the long run. However, in recent trading days, the RMB exchange rate and the spot exchange rate remained strong, and the negative expectations of the RMB exchange rate were eliminated.

The rise is mainly due to technology.

According to the insiders, the increase in the RMB exchange rate may be due to technical reasons at the end of the year.

Zhao Xijun, vice president of Renmin University of China finance school, pointed out to our reporter: "before the RMB spot exchange rate continued to hit the limit, there were many reasons, including speculative factors, and after a continuous decline, the rebound was normal. After all, in the long run, China's economy is stable, its balance of payments is steady, and the RMB can not be depreciated for a long time. The rebound after the short term depreciation is a normal phenomenon.

"The most important reason for this rise is the technical repair factor of the market itself. The market itself will go up and down, and this time it has risen by only more than 200 points. It is a normal interval fluctuation. Because the market has no change in the mentality of the renminbi itself, the rise after falling is normal." Tan Yaling, President of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, told our reporter that "we have noticed that the cumulative appreciation of the renminbi has reached a relative node. The exchange rate of RMB has been rising since the reform of the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, no pressure should be imposed on the appreciation of the renminbi. If there is a rise or demotion, it will be in line with the normal law of the market."

In addition, some analysts believe that the emergence of the foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year is also a direct reason for the rise of the renminbi. In order to cope with the year-end assessment, while waiting for the next year's policy and market trends, corporate clients' settlement boards are pouring out, and banks also choose to sell previously held us dollar positions before the end of the year. In addition, Japan's intention to invest in China's treasury bonds for the first time has also directly promoted the demand for RMB in the international market.

Future two-way volatility may be stronger.

Wu Xiaoling, deputy director of the finance and Economic Commission of the NPC, said recently that the current RMB is 5% per day. The restrictions on the fluctuation interval will be sufficient and will not be adjusted for the time being. Next year, we should increase the flexibility of exchange rate.

For the recent large fluctuations in exchange rate, Wu Xiaoling said there was no need to panic. "In fact, the goal of the reform is to make the exchange rate fluctuate and be flexible." She believes that the depreciation of the renminbi is because there is a large amount of money to be liquidated and returned to Europe and the United States to save itself. There are also some people who are uncertain about China's economic development. The market and exchange rate have risen or fallen, which is a normal reaction of the market.

Zhao Xijun believes that in the future, more and more Renminbi central exchange rate will be more stable and fluctuating. In addition, the short-term factors that will affect the supply and demand of the market will become more and more obvious. For example, some speculative factors and changes in the flow of funds will have an impact on the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate.

Tan Yaling said the exchange rate is a curve, not a straight line. Although the expectation of RMB appreciation has not changed, subtle changes have taken place in the RMB market. In addition, at the end of the year, the spot exchange rate has repeatedly touched the trend of limit down. It is very beneficial to maintain the normalization and rationalization of the RMB exchange rate in the future. Next year, the RMB exchange rate may take a bilateral trend, rising or falling, which is favorable for both the exchange rate and the economy.