Investment Strategy Report Of Textile And Garment Industry In 2012

　　 gf securities An investment strategy report for 2012 was held in Shenzhen in December 13, 2011. GF Securities analyst Ma Tao released the 2012 textile and garment industry. investment strategy The topic is "crossing cycle, focusing on growth".

　　 The following is a summary of the report:

Alleviate the plight of the theory of life cycle: the rise of domestic demand. brand The sustainable predicament of high growth of enterprises: according to the theory of industrial life cycle, it is a historical rule from growth to maturity, and then gradual decline and even exit. Although most of China's textile and garment enterprises are mainly outside demand, they have not formed high-end brand and channel control power in the international market. Therefore, enterprises have encountered the embarrassing situation that the manufacturing links are passively moved out and the high-end areas are hard to break through in the short term. Opportunity: the rise of China's demand will become the greatest opportunity for local enterprises to cross the traditional life cycle. relieve The embarrassing situation faced. China already has the largest population base in the world, and the rich and powerful people have greatly increased their spending power and willingness. Domestic brand clothing enterprises will make full use of the relatively relaxed environment to create and enhance the popularity and reputation of their own brands, and maintain high growth and sustainability.

Coping with the downward trend of inflation in 2012 and the downward cycle of economic growth: focusing on growth challenges: it is estimated that the fall of CPI in the first half of 12 years will be accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth. 1, inflation is falling and price rises are hard to sustain. The fall of CPI in the first half of next year will obviously weaken the effect of raising prices, and the growth of the industry will be expected to increase. 2, economic downturn, consumption will be suppressed. The fall of GDP will reduce people's consumer confidence and indirectly reduce their consumption power, and the release of quantity will be under pressure. Strategy: a company with brand premium is expected to go through the cycle and continue to raise its price on the premise of volume increase. Since the 08 financial crisis, the growth rate of men's clothing has been consistently higher than that of the industry. The 12 year spring and summer orders will synchronously increase the price while the order grows, and the relative advantage is obvious. It is an important embodiment of the brand premium capability that the price can still be raised smoothly under the disadvantage.

　　 Through the cycle, focusing on Growth -- optimistic about the men's clothing industry

The PEG of most brand clothing companies is between 0.5-0.8 and has a strong margin of safety. Considering the high growth space brought by the rise of domestic demand to local brand enterprises and the macro environment of inflation decline and economic growth decline in the first half of 12 years, we recommend the men's and home textile sub sectors in turn. The promising companies are seven wolves, nine herd kings, Hinur, good news birds, Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna and Meng Jie home textiles.

　　 Risk warning

The economy has slumped to further curb consumption; raw materials, labor and channel costs have gone up. Expect 。