The Trend Of Soochow Futures Goes All The Way Into A Word. Zheng Cotton Enters Hibernation.
First, cotton weekly market review, the futures market is affected by European debt related worries. Since last week, most of the domestic commodity markets represented by gum and coloured products have undergone intense fluctuations, but the trend of Zhengzhou cotton has maintained a one word formation and fluctuated little throughout the week.
Last week, the main 1205 contract opened at 20310, the highest level to 20450, the lowest point to 20270, as of Friday, closed at 20340, compared with the previous weekend closing price rose 70 points or 0.35%.
The US cotton main force has successfully moved to the 03 contract. Compared to Zheng cotton, the US cotton week is going to be magnificent. The first three days of last week, the US cotton December contract steadily climbed, and the highest level was 104.69 cents / lb. the next two days, although the US cotton export data were positive, it was difficult to resist the negative impact of the European debt crisis.
On Thursday, the main contract ended in March. Friday, the US cotton December contract and March contract continued to fall sharply, all closing to a new low in one year, of which the US cotton main 03 contract closed at 93.27 cents / pound, down 4.77 cents / pound compared with the previous weekend.
Electronic matching November 18th week, electronic matching market contract prices continue to lower.
cotton
The spot price and the futures market price are running.
In the past week, the market price of MA1111 and MA1112 contracts were lower than 19000 yuan / ton on Friday, indicating the pessimistic expectations of market participants for cotton prices.
When the total volume of the week was 80740 tons, it increased by 15020 tons compared with last week, and the weekly ordering volume was 58320 tons, a decrease of 1180 tons compared with the previous week.
Two, macro and fundamental factors analysis 1, European debt worries remain, macro uncertainties are still many and the market is right now.
European debt
Worries about the crisis have spread to the core countries.
Last Tuesday, Italy's 10 year treasury bonds rose to 7% above the unsustainable level, and the yields on Spanish long term treasury bonds on Wednesday also gradually approached the warning level.
At present, Italy has issued 1 trillion and 900 billion of national debt.
Euro
Europe's total exposure to Italy amounted to 753 billion 600 million euros, more than 7 times that of Greece.
If Italy's debt problem can not be well resolved, its impact on the market will be much greater than that of Greece.
In order to better stimulate European economic growth, the European Central Bank announced on the 3 day of this month that the main refinancing rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%. However, from the latest data, the euro area CPI rose 3% in October, which has been beyond the 2% upper limit set by the European central bank for 11 consecutive months. This will further restrict the European Central Bank's policy space to cope with the weak economy in Europe.
There are differences in the EU's response to the European debt crisis, especially the divergence between Germany and France, which makes the market full of uncertainty. The German foreign minister said that the country is considering the possibility of "orderly default" in addition to Greece, which indicates that the European debt crisis is far from being resolved and the future macro-economic aspects are still facing many uncertainties.
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