PTA The Peak Season Is Not Good, But The Off-Season Is Even Lighter.

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Under the increasing circumstances, oil prices will not continue to rise in the future.

Although oil prices are rising well, downstream petrochemical products are in a downward trend.

In October, there was a tight supply side in the PX market, and PTA fell sharply due to poor downstream demand.

At the beginning of November, Asian PX prices fell below 1400 US dollars, reaching the lowest level in nearly 16 weeks.

At present, the market has slowed down, but the overall market is still cautious. The seller has a strong intention to ship. Because of the increase in PX supply, the downstream PTA profit has been squeezed into a cautious wait and see.

In November, PX's weak pattern will be extended, and PTA can not provide cost support, which may drag down the price trend of PTA.

Quick return

In the early days, a number of domestic PTA repair devices were gradually resumed production, and the annual new capacity installation was also in place. The total capacity of the domestic PTA industry has exceeded 20 million tons.

With the gradual production of 4 million 500 thousand tons of new capacity in the fourth quarter, the domestic PTA output will increase significantly, and the contradiction between supply exceeding demand is coming to an end. It will have an important negative impact on the price trend of PTA in the later stage.

The main reason for the rapid rebound of futures prices in the early stage is that the current price gap is too large, and the spot market is in a sharp rise.

Starting from the end of June, the current price difference basically runs from -300 to 300.

In late September, futures prices plummeted, and spot prices fell smaller. The difference between them was once -1000 yuan / ton, so unreasonable price spreads are expected to return, making futures prices very dynamic.

The peak season is not prosperous, but the off-season is even lighter.

"Golden nine silver ten" did not bring benefits to the market, the industry is looking forward to failure, the polyester market is extremely low, the polyester prices in the lower reaches of the market are greatly reduced, and the demand for terminal textile is equally weak.

Polyester factories slashed prices for sale, but factories in all aspects of the industrial chain still maintained a cautious attitude of purchase.

Among them, polyester and short stocks picked up faster, and the short and short businesses continuously cut down the load of devices.

The stock of various filament continues to rise, short staple and filament stocks are close to the high point of the year, polyester enterprises have greater sales pressure.

The overall situation shows that polyester demand is very poor.

The pressure of terminal textile enterprises is also not small, high inventory, low profit and tight funds.

Due to the weakness of the US economy and the impact of the European debt crisis, most of China's textile export orders have been reduced.

The Ministry of Commerce has warned that uncertainties and uncertainties affecting China's foreign trade development will increase and the import and export situation will be quite grim.

The fourth quarter is the traditional off-season of PTA. At the end of the year, the demand for credit squeeze is sluggish. It is expected that the market will be in a more difficult position in the off-season.

Rebound is difficult, but there is pressure ahead.

At present, PTA is close to October low, and the 8000 point is facing trial.

At the end of last week, the capital of Zhejiang Province entered the market in a big way, holding heavy positions and short selling. Under the general pessimism of the market, it triggered a new round of PTA downtrend.

If the 8000 point falls, the 7500 support below will be tested.

In the future, PTA will face an unstable macro environment, which is hard to say optimistically.