Cotton Price Fluctuation In 2011; Cotton Textile Enterprises Will Slowly Recover Next Year

PTA and cotton are the two major futures varieties in China. Among the domestic textile materials, cotton and chemical fiber account for 90%, 90%, 90% and 90% of the total, while polyester fiber accounts for 80%, 80%, 80% and 80% of the total.

Theoretically, the consumption of the two will be replaced by the price change. Therefore, PTA The relationship with cotton is mainly realized through the substitution of polyester staple fiber downstream of PTA and cotton.

The cotton harvest in 2011 was good, but the cotton price has continued to decline recently, which led to upstream cotton farmers worried about the decline in cotton income, and some cotton farmers even planned to "abandon cotton for grain". Cotton farmers in Xinjiang, Shandong and other major cotton producing areas are generally reluctant to sell. Many cotton farmers report that this year's cotton planting can only guarantee the capital.

The main reasons for the low cotton price are: first, this year Global cotton The output has reached 27 million tons, while the demand has steadily declined to about 25 million tons. The supply has exceeded the demand, and the price of foreign cotton has fallen sharply and is lower than the domestic price; Second, the domestic cotton harvest, the demand is basically the same as last year, and the gap between supply and demand is narrowing; Third, the European and American markets are in recession, the demand for cotton textiles is shrinking, the number of foreign trade orders is decreasing, the production and operation of textile enterprises are difficult, and the price of cotton yarn is difficult to increase; Fourth, the cost of domestic labor and raw materials increased, the cost of cotton textiles increased, international competitiveness declined, and foreign trade orders were transferred to some low-cost countries in Southeast Asia.

Since the beginning of 2011, China's cotton textile enterprises raw material The price of cotton is falling, but the clothing is shouting the slogan of price rise. Behind the abnormal performance, in fact, is the consequence of some enterprises hoarding cotton at a high level.