The Sinohydro Rising Show Ends; Ace Brokers Suspected Of Stock Price Manipulation

"Buy Sinohydro and hurry to the hospital; the winning lot is like being shot, and you will die tragically." After the escort on the first day of listing, Sinohydro (601669) returned to its original form yesterday, closing at 4.86 yuan, down 7.78%. However, after being allocated with Sinohydro mechanism Among them, many securities companies still offer high pricing, among which Guotai Jun'an plans to set the first day's pricing range at 5.53-6.80 yuan. Coincidentally, Guotai Jun'an not only sets the highest price for China's hydropower broker It is also the institution with the largest number of shares allocated, up to 286 million shares. This dual identity of inquiry agency and allocation agency has aroused many doubts in the public.

First day Organization escort Next day Hot money Escape

Without the escort of institutions, Sinohydro revealed its true colors the next day after listing.

The first day of Sinohydro's crazy rise ended at a temporary stop. Yesterday morning, it took profits, opened at a 3.4% decline, and went down all the way. Finally, it closed at 4.86 yuan, down nearly 8% all over the world, "returning to the pre liberation overnight".

In fact, Sinohydro has strained investors' nerves these two days, and the performance of the first day of listing of the stock can be described as a great surprise to everyone. On the 18th, the first day of Sinohydro's listing, the stock unexpectedly hit the warning line and temporarily stopped. At the end of the day, it closed at 5.27 yuan, up 17%.

However, as early as before the listing, analysts of securities companies generally believed that this large cap stock could not escape the fate of falling, and investors cursed China's hydropower break. Not only that, Sinohydro has automatically shrunk its issuance scale before listing. According to public data, Sinohydro took the initiative to reduce its IPO size from 3.5 billion shares to 3 billion shares, and set the issue price at 4.5 yuan. Obviously, no one would expect the rising show on the first day of Sinohydro's listing.

The reporter checked the seat changes of Sinohydro in the past two days. From the trading details disclosed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the first day of Sinohydro's big rise was mainly due to the pursuit of institutional funds. Two of the top five buying seats are from institutions, and the buying momentum is much stronger than the selling momentum. Among the seats of Sinohydro, the first one to be purchased is the institution, with a purchase amount of 309 million yuan. Compared with buying seats, the chief sellers on the same day also only sold 42.03 million yuan of selling funds.

On the second day after the listing, this situation has been greatly reversed. In this part of the seats, there are still large amounts of funds that can be quickly moved in and out. The reporter found that Galaxy Securities Xiamen Meihu Road and Xiangcai Securities Hangzhou Jiaogong Road were both bought on the first day and sold on the second day. Moreover, the sales amount of these two seats was higher than the purchase amount, indicating that this part of hot money may have made a profit and fled.

Although Sinohydro experienced a sharp decline yesterday, many institutions still chose to build positions. Two of the top five buying seats were from institutions, and one was the headquarters of Founder Securities (601901).

In addition, it can be seen that the turnover rate of Sinohydro in these two days is also increasing. On the first day of listing, the share turnover rate was as high as 94%, and almost all of the new share chips winning the subscription were changed. Yesterday's intraday differences also highlighted, with the turnover rate exceeding 49%, ranking second in the turnover rate of individual stocks in the two markets yesterday.

Guotai Jun'an is suspected of violating the regulations

The rising show on the first day of Sinohydro's listing has something to do with many institutions' enthusiasm and pursuit. The reporter also found that many institutions not only gave high prices, but also actively participated in the subscription process of the stock.

The reporter checked the subscription situation of Sinohydro, Guotai Jun'an was allocated 286 million shares, which is the largest number of subscription agencies. In addition, according to the statistics of information, social security fund, Huaxia Fund, Haitong Securities (600837), Ping An Securities and other institutions have also been successfully allocated, and the number of allocated institutions is 90.

Among these institutions, Guotai Jun'an not only has the largest number of allocation, but also has the highest price for Sinohydro. According to Guotai Jun'an's IPO pricing analysis report on Sinohydro, "it is expected that the company's EPS in 2011-2013 will be 0.37, 0.49 and 0.60 yuan, with a price earnings ratio of 13-16 times in 2011, and the corresponding price range of 4.81-5.92 yuan. Considering the 15% increase on the first day of listing, the first day's pricing range will be 5.53-6.80 yuan."

According to Guotai Jun'an, the policy support for water conservancy and hydropower is stronger than before. According to the No. 1 Document, the average annual investment in water conservancy in the next 10 years will be twice as high as that in 2010, that is, 400 billion yuan per year; The Twelfth Five Year Plan for Electric Power clearly prioritizes the development of hydropower. It is expected that the hydropower installed capacity will increase by 70 million kilowatts during the Twelfth Five Year Plan period, and 120 million kilowatts in the next decade. The technical experience barrier of water conservancy and hydropower projects is high, and the company, as a leading enterprise, has benefited greatly. Considering the lag of policies, it is expected to be reflected in succession after the second half of the year.

However, the market performance of Sinohydro in the past two days is not as optimistic as that of institutions. At least the performance of the stock yesterday shows that investors still have differences on this giant IPO.

As for the behavior of Guotai Jun'an and other institutions "Wang Po selling melons", many insiders questioned it. A researcher who participated in the writing of Sinohydro said that the dual identity of inquiry institution and allocation institution is difficult to make the institution "independent", and it is difficult to escape the suspicion of stock price manipulation.
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After nearly 94% of the daily turnover on the first day, Sinohydro Corporation Limited (601669, closing price 4.86 yuan) had a turnover rate of 49.26% yesterday, exceeding the turnover rate of all new shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the first day after September 9. It closed down 7.78%, and was once close to the limit.

Current floating loss of 1.5 billion yuan

Yesterday, Sinohydro opened at a low price of more than 3%, which continued to be depressed throughout the day. The highest price that could be effectively traded in the morning was about 5.12 yuan. After the opening in the afternoon, it once fell to 4.75 yuan, only one penny short of the limit. Since then, the buying began to fight back, but the final price fell by 7.78%, 3.66 billion yuan, and the turnover rate reached 49.26%, This turnover rate exceeded the first day turnover rate of all new shares listed on the main board of Shanghai Stock Exchange after September 9.

However, although Sinohydro's trading was still hot yesterday, some of the funds that entered the market on the first day of listing had suffered a large book loss. According to the reporter's statistics, with the highest transaction price of 5.12 yuan yesterday as the dividing line, about 1.5 billion yuan of funds that entered the market after 10:37 on the first day of listing could hardly be withdrawn yesterday. Except for those who left the market, this part of funds has suffered losses. On the first day, the book loss of the funds involved above 6 yuan was as high as 19%.

It is worth noting that the hot money of the Xiamen Meihu Road Business Department of Galaxy Securities has left the institution in a sedan chair. Transaction data shows that the seat spent a huge amount of money to buy 227 million yuan on the first day, and sold 234 million yuan yesterday, with a profit of more than 7 million yuan.

Cao Xuefeng, an analyst of West China Securities, told the reporter of the Daily Economic News that from the perspective of the industry's comprehensive valuation, Sinohydro's subsequent decline may be limited, and the main pressure is the lifting of the ban on offline institutions' rights issue three months later. Therefore, short-term hedges still have the opportunity to reduce their positions at high prices after the rebound.

The financing peak of super large cap stocks has not passed

It is worth noting that since Mengfali (002614, closing price 37.31 yuan) opened the door of "breaking" the first day of new shares again on September 9, as of the listing of Sinohydro Corporation Limited, all three new shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange had broken on the first day, so Sinohydro Corporation Limited's rising performance on the first day broke the first day of new shares breaking haze on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

However, investors may frown again after reading the following series of IPO financing figures: following Sinohydro, the large cap stocks to be issued include CCCC and Shaanxi Coal, while the market rumors say that the super large cap stocks such as Xinhua Life Insurance will soon start the process of meeting, and the financing scale of the above three large cap stocks may exceed 55 billion yuan.

The head of Yinfan Investment, interviewed by the reporter of the Daily Economic News, said that the "madness" of Sinohydro on the first day was actually a normal reaction to the consensus of the market, because too many people thought it would break, so the result was the opposite. The subsequent large market new shares will also be raised in succession, so we should still be cautious about fighting and speculation. {page_break}

Organizations play with China's hydropower, which rises sharply on the first day and falls sharply the next day

Abnormal performance: The stock price of Sinohydro (601669), which landed in Shanghai on Wednesday, fluctuated widely in the past two days. After a 17% jump on the first day of listing, Sinohydro opened low and walked low yesterday, closing down 7.78% and changing hands 49% throughout the day.

Comment: As the largest water conservancy and hydropower construction enterprise in China, Sinohydro landed in Shanghai on Wednesday.

Considering that the world and China have entered the stage of comprehensive development of water resources and the golden age of water conservancy construction, China's hydropower is a world-class water conservancy leader and will fully benefit from it. However, as it was the largest IPO project in the year, and the overall market was still weak, Sinohydro was not favored by the market before listing. As early as the subscription, the company encountered investors "voting with their feet". The offline subscription was only 1.75 times, and the online lottery winning rate reached 9.695%, a new high in the recent three months. Many market participants speculate that the company is more likely to break on the first day of listing.

However, the stock rose unexpectedly on the first day of listing, with the largest increase of more than 38% in the session, closing up 17%, and a turnover rate of 93.96%.

As Sinohydro's listing performance far exceeded expectations and its turnover rate was too high, the market was worried that its future performance might not be satisfactory. There is no mistake in the market this time. Sure enough, yesterday the stock did not take on the strength of the previous day. Instead, it opened low and walked low. The maximum decline was close to the limit, closing down 7.78%, and the turnover rate reached 49%, still maintaining a high level.

Public trading information shows that institutions have been the main force of Sinohydro in recent two days, and active hot money has also actively participated.

On the first day of listing, two institutions bought a total of 420 million yuan. The two active hot money seats of Galaxy Securities Xiamen Meihu Road Business Department and Xiangcai Securities Hangzhou Jiaogong Road Business Department, as well as CITIC Securities Customer Asset Management Department, were also heavily involved.

Yesterday, although the stock opened at a low price and went down sharply all day, there were still two institutions in the "buy one" and "buy three" seats, and they jointly bought 123 million yuan in total. In addition, Founder Securities Headquarters, Everbright Securities Foshan Lvjing Road Business Department, and CITIC Jintong Securities Hangzhou Yan'an Road Business Department also took advantage of bargain hunting. On the first day, Galaxy Securities Xiamen Meihu Road Business Department, which bought 227 million yuan, sold 234 million yuan. Xiangcai Securities Hangzhou Jiaogong Road Business Department and a seat of an institution also had some reduction.

On the whole, institutions are still net buyers. Considering that there are obvious signs of institutional protection and the absolute share price is not too high, aggressive investors can pay careful attention to bargain hunting.