Experts Expect CPI To Rise 5.5% In The Whole Year.

A number of experts said at the Tsinghua University China and world economic forum held on 15 th, the next CPI will be the same year.

CPI is expected to continue to fall

The Research Report on China's macroeconomic forecast and analysis released by Tsinghua University's China and world economic research center on 15 may predict that the CPI will continue to fall in the next year, and will fall to 4.6% by the end of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and 2.7% in 2012.

In the next few years, China's economy will still face greater pressure, mainly due to the gradual increase in labor costs, resulting in this round of currency.

Li Daokui, chairman of the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China and director of China and world economic research center, Tsinghua University (micro-blog), said that with the weakening of the effect of early regulatory policies and the weakening of future factors, CPI growth will continue to fall in the future, and the policy goal of inflation control has been initially achieved.

Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, predicts that CPI will increase by 5.5% this year and will be reduced to 4% by the end of next year.

Promoting economic restructuring

Li Daokui said that the slowdown of China's economic growth in the future is irreversible. The reason for this slowdown is not the lack of economic development momentum, but the change of growth pattern. Next, we should seek major progress in structural adjustment in the economic slowdown.

Monetary policy will remain stable and the growth rate of fixed asset investment will remain strong in the future.

Overall, the current economic policy fits the practical requirements of structural pformation.

The report considers that, in view of the control of inflation expectations, from the whole year,

Fan Jianping believes that combined with the first three quarters of the economic data forecast, the annual GDP growth rate will be 9.4%, next year will be 8.7%.

He said that because of economic restructuring, China has been more active and calm in the financial crisis than in 2008.

The best way to deal with the current crisis is to "do our job well", that is, structural adjustment and consumption reform.

"In the adverse international environment, domestic economic regulation and control is likely to achieve substantial results. I hope the government can shift its focus to stimulating domestic consumption growth in the fourth quarter of this year or next year."

European debt crisis or exacerbation

Li Daokui said that according to the current economic situation and policy objectives, the outbreak of the European debt crisis is inevitable, and policymakers should take full account of these factors.

Europe's debt crisis is unlikely to drag on, but in any case, there will be a final outcome in three years.

Li Daokui predicted that Greece and Portugal will inevitably enter the restructuring default, "but the euro will not fall, the EU will not collapse, but will become stronger after reform."

Li Daokui said that in order to avoid excessive economic downturn in the pition period, we should closely observe the changes in the international economic situation, make targeted policy plans, and speed up the launching of major projects such as water conservancy and affordable housing to promote a soft landing for China's economy.

The financing of these large projects should be based on financial input.

Zhou Ping, managing director of standard & Poor's and greater China, said Greece and other European countries are highly likely to default on technology.

"Greece's debt is so huge that it needs reform to raise its rating."

Countries such as Italy and the United States have a negative outlook, and the future is still 1/3 more likely to be downgraded.