Three Quarter Textile Market Downturn &Nbsp; Industry Or Sink Into Shuffle "Mire"

According to the third quarter, the whole industry is stripped of the chemical fiber industry. textile industry Seems to have entered the freezing point. The cotton textile industry chain, which was down by the upstream cotton prices in the early stage, fell to 20% at the lowest point. Even if there was a slight warming in the end of the season, it would undoubtedly remain at the lowest level for the cotton market. The chemical fiber industry chain takes polyester as an example to ride a roller coaster. The upstream cost is favorable to support prices. But after mid September, many unfavorable factors highlighted the price of the industry chain plummeted. Cocoon silk industry All the way down, the market was more miserable, with a price drop of 20%.

Generally speaking, the "gold nine silver ten" phenomenon in the third quarter of the textile industry is not yet present, leading to the overall downturn in the textile industry, which is closely related to costs, supply and demand, policy decisions and the external environment. Although textile exports increased year by year, profits fell. With the constant changes of influencing factors, the trend of reshuffling of textile industry is coming again.

　 Textile in the three quarter market Analysis of price influence factors

First, the cost factors of industrial chain. The added value of production and the production cost also increase year by year. The rise and fall of the textile raw material market is closely related to the upstream cost.

1. the chemical fiber industry chain that first rises and then falls: mid September is the turning point of the price fluctuation of the polyester industry chain. Before that, prices rose all the way, mainly due to the high price of PX and the beneficial effect of centralized maintenance of PTA devices, resulting in the continuous high price of PTA and supporting the downstream polyester industry. After the middle of September, the price of the industry chain declined linearly under the influence of unfavorable factors such as PX speculation, PTA price fall and weak downstream demand.

The 2. quarter slumped cotton textile market and cocoon silk market. Mid August was a turning point in the price fluctuation of cotton textile industry. In July, the price of upstream cotton continued to decline, and the downstream demand showed no signs of warming. It was difficult to rapidly digest the upstream inventory, and cotton enterprises' willingness to sell lower prices increased. It was not until August that the purchasing and storage policy boosted the cotton market, cotton prices rose steadily, the downstream cotton yarn market slightly improved, and the goods did not improve significantly, but prices stabilized and the market mentality improved temporarily. The cocoon silk industry, the end of the spring cocoon and the listing of the autumn cocoon size had little effect on the summer cocoons. In June, the purchase price of spring cocoons had reached 50 yuan / kg. Under the support of dry cocoon, the turbulence of cocoon silk market was not obvious at that time. With the fall of the news, the stock of the silk thread in the dry cocoon silk reeling increased and the price began to fall.

Supply and demand of textile raw materials

1. supply situation: chemical fiber industry centralized maintenance in this quarter, and factory inventory is low. Cotton market turnover is not obvious at present, with the new cotton market, the market will be more abundant cotton. After the listing of spring cocoons and summer cocoons, the silk reeling plant increased production, and the supply was adequate in the three quarter. However, the export volume of products was significantly reduced in the first eight months.

2. demand situation: textile enterprises are mainly increased by labor costs, RMB appreciation, raw material prices and loan interest rates. It is evident from the import volume. {page_break}

Impact of industry related policy decisions

1, lint collection and storage. In September, when the lint market began to store and store, the market produced a glue imagination, that is, ten days of storage and closing spanactions. However, after storage, after all, it has a favorable impact on the cotton market at the end of the season.

2. factory silk storage. Like the lint market, the state has introduced a policy of collecting and storing silk from the silk market. In September 9, 2011, the state cocoon and silk office issued a public announcement on the acquisition of the national reserve plant silk. It is worth mentioning that this purchase and storage is "quantitative pricing", and in this period, it is obvious that competition for cocoon and silk will also play a role in boosting fuel consumption.

The influence of market environment

For the entire textile industry, exports and consumption in Europe and America will have a huge impact on the industry. The European debt problem has not been solved, the global economic recession deadlock has not improved, after the trend of panic, the market sentiment is still cautiously optimistic, therefore, the textile market downturn is also expected. At present, there is a news that Italy's exports to the United States have declined, because the consumer goods safety rules in the United States constitute obstacles to the sale of light silk fabrics, and customers prefer to choose fiber materials that are not subject to flammability requirements. This also shows that the demand for textiles in foreign markets is getting higher and higher, and the domestic textiles which have been lacking in innovation are shrinking step by step.

At present, textile enterprises have difficulty in receiving orders and large inventory pressure. At the same time, the domestic textile industry will once again fall into a shuffle "mire" and "silver ten" market will be hard to achieve because of many bad factors such as rising labor costs, RMB appreciation, raw material price fluctuations and loan interest rates. Classified products, Xia Ting, an analyst at PTA, believes that the recent international crude oil market is still in the adjustment market. The PX market continues to decline, and the PTA market is still showing a weak trend of adjustment. Li Liheng, a lint analyst at the business association, also gave the suggestion of cotton Market: cotton purchasing and storage policy plays an important role in improving the enthusiasm of cotton farmers and avoiding the risk of textile industry. But at present, it is still necessary for textile enterprises to get out of the predicament. It is predicted that price increases and inflation will increase in the future, and prices will fluctuate upward and upward.