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CPI Is Expected To Rise By 5.5%&Nbsp Over The Whole Year, And The Next Year'S Growth Will Slow Down.

2011/10/12 14:40:00 18

The analysis and prediction of China's economic situation released on 2011 by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the autumn report of 2011, said that consumer price of consumer goods will increase by 5.5% in 2011 due to the inflationary impact of imported inflation, the modest increase in domestic agricultural prices and the rise in labor costs.

According to the report, the CPI growth rate continued to run high in 2011, and CPI rose by 6.5% in July, the highest since 2009.

With the gradual weakening of the tail factor, CPI growth will fall in the fourth quarter of this year.

The report points out that many factors have contributed to this inflationary pressure, including the inflationary pressure caused by the long term quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, and the lagging impact on the price increase caused by the large scale of new domestic credit in the period of international financial crisis.

More noteworthy is that the new cost drivers of various aspects have also led to high price levels.

People in the Academy of Social Sciences said that factors that will continue to drive prices continue to exist in the future, such as rising labor costs.

But overall, the overall level of prices will show a downward trend next year.

According to the report, there are many factors favorable for downward prices next year, and the influence of favorable factors will be greater.

First of all, with the good harvest of autumn grain, grain prices and vegetable prices will tend to slow down, thereby pulling down.

CPI

Secondly, the further increase in the price of pork is limited; in addition, the future monetary and financial policy will continue to adjust gently, and the problem of excess liquidity will be alleviated, which will inhibit the growth of prices.

The Academy of Social Sciences expects CPI to rise by 4.6% next year.

Director, Department of economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "China"

economic situation

Chen Jiagui, general head of the analysis and forecast, said that the central government's macro-control has brought some price controls this year. Macroeconomic policies at the end of this year and early next year should continue to control inflation and stabilize prices.

Chen Jiagui argues that there are four reasons for this: first, China's CPI is up by more than 5%, and prices are still running high.

industrial products

The ex factory price index also rose significantly; two, there were no significant changes in the factors that caused the CPI to continue to rise: the excess liquidity and the pressure caused by the external environment existed at the same time, and China's agricultural foundation was weak. The contradiction between supply and demand of agricultural products would exist for a long time, and prices still had room for improvement. Three, the cost increase was still a major factor in pushing up prices. The price reform of some resource goods would also cause some enterprises to increase their prices. Four, imported inflation still had the potential to push up CPI.