Eight Elements To Judge The General Trend Of Stock Market

According to foreign economy and Finance In order to find out the trend of stock market and grasp its development trend, there are at least the following symptoms for reference:

(1) according to the various economic indicators issued by the relevant government departments Prosperity Countermeasure signals to analyze whether economic growth tends to decline.

For example, the economic growth forecast, the monthly increase rate of industrial production, the unemployment rate and leading indicators of the relevant government departments have revealed important information. If the economy shows signs of recession, the stock market will be short of strength, and the so-called "capital market" is not sustainable.

(2) is there an upward trend in inflation?

Inflation not only causes enterprises to rise in price and wages, but also increases the purchasing power of most low-income and fixed income persons, which indirectly affects corporate profits. Of course, in the early days of inflation, enterprises had the advantages of low price stocks, raw materials, finished products and real estate, but they were very profitable. Once inflation worsens, the stock market will inevitably fall short.

(3) whether interest rates rise substantially.

When international interest rates have risen substantially, countries have prevented large amounts of domestic funds. Outflow It must also be forced to raise interest rates. A few years ago, the US Federal Reserve increased the discount rate by 0.5 percentage points, from 6.5% to 7%, and the major US banks immediately raised their interest rates to more than 11%, so that European industrial countries were also considering increasing their discount rates. If European countries follow up, the global interest rate will rise, which will affect the development of the global economy.

In addition, if inflation continues to rise, the government will stabilize the people's livelihood and curb financial speculation and tighten financial measures to force interest rates to rise. The rise in interest rates, the rise in operating costs and the relatively low profitability of the stock market are, of course, disadvantageous. That is, when the Federal Reserve Board announced the lifting of the discount rate, the Wall Street market immediately fell sharply.

(4) is the real estate economy in recession?

Usually, the real estate boom is almost synchronous with the ups and downs of the stock market. If the real estate industry is booming, the stock market will also be active. Otherwise, if the real estate boom is declining, the stock market will not be able to guarantee prosperity.

The real estate industry rose sharply in the last few years along with the stock market boom. The rate of increase has been multiplier, but in recent years, it has fallen, regardless of the sales rate of pre-sale housing or the performance of the housing intermediary industry.

(5) whether the stock market is out of order.

Once the stock market is out of order, there must be several characteristics:

1 the majority of the stock is "high", which is obviously not commensurate with the actual profitability of the listed companies.

2 the share price of small and speculative stocks continued to soar.

3 the price rises and even decreases.

The 4 stock market is full of optimism, which shows that the stock market is overheating.

5 technical indicators show that the stock market is "overbought".

Reviewing the stock market crash in the past and changing the stock market from a multi market to a bear market, it is possible to experience this stage of disorderly inflation. Therefore, once there is a stir or a hand has been fishing, it is bound to trigger panic selling, and the stock price is plunging from the market to the bear market.

(6) whether international crude oil prices have risen substantially

So far, there is no more economical and effective energy source to replace oil. Once oil prices soar, the world economy will be greatly affected.

At present, the price of oil is expected to be stable because of the gradual pace of the oil producing countries and the non oil producing countries' oil producing countries. But if the international crude oil prices rise, the situation will be changed, which will have a major impact on the global stock market. The two oil crisis in the Middle East is a good example.

(7) whether labor and environmental problems are deteriorating day by day

The two major problems of labor and environmental protection have dampened economic development and reduced the willingness to invest in enterprises.

(8) whether politics and society remain stable and stable.

A prosperous stock market depends on a stable political and stable society. If the political situation is unstable, the economic development will be affected and the social order is chaotic, it will reduce the investment intention of the enterprises.