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IMF Sharply Cuts Us Economic Growth In The Next Two Years

2011/9/21 8:49:00 18

The United States Eastern time on September 20th morning (Beijing time September 20th evening) news, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this year, the third reduction in the United States this year and next year's economic growth rate is expected, the US economy in 2011 only increased by 1.5%.

Down regulation

The range is 1 percentage points, the highest in the global economy.

IMF today's latest global economic outlook report will reduce global economic growth by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively in the next two years, down to 4% level.

The growth rate of the US economy this year has been reduced by the most, from 2.5% in June to 1.5%, and next year's economic growth will be reduced from 2.7% to 1.8%.

IMF pointed out in the report that the global economy should be lowered.

Speed up

Mainly because of the developed countries such as the United States and other financial crises, the pition from public demand to private demand is longer than expected, the euro zone sovereign debt and banking system problems are more difficult than expected, and Japan's earthquake and the turmoil in the Middle East turmoil caused by oil prices.

By contrast, IMF is more pessimistic than the Fed and Goldman Sachs about the economic situation in the US and the next two years.

According to the report of the Fed's June Conference on interest rates, it expects us economic growth to grow from 2.7% to 2.9% this year and 3.3% to 3.7% next year, while Goldman Sachs's latest report in September predicts that the growth rate in the United States and the next two years will be 1.6% and 2%.

According to the Ministry of commerce data, the US GDP growth rate was only 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, and the growth rate in the two quarter was 1%.

IMF expects us economic growth to rise from 1% in the two quarter to 2% in late 2012.

The agency specifically referred to the United States.

Obtain employment

The situation is grim, pointing out that the high unemployment rate will further crack down on the confidence of American families in the future income. More than 40% unemployed people are unemployed for more than 6 months, and may lose their working ability completely.

The unemployment rate in the US remained high at 9.1% in August. Goldman Sachs predicted that the unemployment rate would be 9.1% and 9.4% by the end of next year.

President Obama sent a total of $447 billion to the Congress to promote employment, but he was opposed by Republicans by proposing a tax increase to the rich to balance government spending.

Obama yesterday formally submitted to Congress 4 trillion and 400 billion deficit reduction plans for the next ten years, including a 1 trillion and 500 billion increase in taxes.

IMF warned in the report that if the financial improvement of developed countries is at the expense of national disposable income, the country's economy may stagnate.

"For example, if the payroll tax cuts and unemployment compensation schemes are not postponed in the United States, the growth rate of the US economy will slow down considerably. At the same time, if the medium-term fiscal improvement policy is not implemented, ordinary households and traders will be more pessimistic about the economic outlook and increase their deposit rate significantly. As a result, economic growth may be faced with a" loss of ten years ".

In terms of financial markets and monetary policy, IMF pointed out that the recent turmoil in financial markets has intensified due to concerns about the European debt crisis and the global economic growth in the United States.

While the US monetary policy is still relatively loose, the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) has ended, but the Fed has pointed out that it will maintain zero interest rates until mid 2013.

The Federal Reserve will hold the September interest rate meeting today and two. The market expects that the Fed will take further policy actions to support economic growth.

In the three policy instruments mentioned by the Fed's statement of interest in August, the higher voice is "distorting operation", which reduces the long-term interest rate by selling short debt and buying long debt.