Ni Jin Jie: Buying European Debt Is Equivalent To Committing Suicide To Send Money.

Three years ago, in September 15th,

Last time, when the financial institutions were in crisis, the government could still help. This time, the world's sovereign debt crisis swept the world. Who can save the government?

Not to play a game of paper prosperity, continue to play scatters money to stimulate economic growth, I am afraid that will make the debt crisis.

In fact, the global economy is faced with structural problems: the developed countries in Europe and the United States are facing excessive social welfare expenditure. They must have the determination to "tighten their belts" and spend their money to tide over the debt crisis. The problems of developing countries are similar to those of China, facing the problem of over reliance on exports and investment. They need to face domestic demand and start internal demand.

Clearly, the original "new bubble to save the old bubble" trick has been the end of the road, it is impossible to solve the structural problems plaguing the whole world.

In addition to bringing about three years of paper prosperity, the real economy has not gone out of recession, and the new round of economic prosperity is in sight.

But it makes people

Strictly speaking, in the past three years, the "money" has dragged up the prosperity of the financial market and made the emerging market take the lead in recovery, and the European and American economies escaped the doom of the "free fall".

And the economic prospects and structural pformation have never seen the dawn.

In the 80 years from 30s to the last century, infrastructure construction, military industry, IT Internet industry and real estate industry have created several rounds of prosperity cycle of the US economy. But now that the US is deeply entangled by the liquidity trap, the sovereign credit rating has been lowered, and the debt crisis has hit the surface, and the real economy will have to bottom again.

Before the new growth engine is found, the economic recovery is doomed to be fragile.

What will become the engine of the next round of economic growth?

Although all parties are talking about the new energy industry, but depending on new energy to create the next brilliant ten years, now, whether in Europe and America or emerging market countries, in terms of technological maturity and industrial production, it is far from enough to make new energy become the engine of new economic growth.

The only dilemma now is the collective dilemma of monetary policy.

At the end of the central bank's monetary easing cycle, on the one hand, it is the entity downturn and the new crisis. On the other hand, it corresponds to asset bubbles and global high inflation.

This makes it possible for the central bankers to tighten the currency by the end of 2012, so as to curb the runaway inflation and soaring asset prices.

Otherwise, the vicious inflation and asset bubbles brought by paper prosperity will make the world economy difficult to get out of the predicament.

Once the era of stagflation is fixed, it will be even more difficult to start economic prosperity.

The question that sooner or later must be settled in the world is: what kind of solution does the European and American debt come from over consumption of Pang's game?

Although few people will believe that the United States has a default on its currency reserves, it will be fine for us to pay interest on the basis of the reserve currency status of the US dollar.

However, the further issuance of money will only lead to hyperinflation, but not the support of real economic growth to the amount of money issued, so that the real value of the dollar will be greatly diluted.

This is not easy for the United States, and the US government will not sacrifice it if it is absolutely necessary.

If the trees want to be calm and the wind is strong, China's economy can no longer be ill because of the external economy.

For China, this time it is difficult to shoulder the heavy responsibility of saving the world.

Recently, media reports reported that the Italy government hoped that China could buy large amounts of its treasury bonds to help Italy tide over the difficulties.

Yes, China has huge foreign exchange reserves and is facing problems of maintaining value and increasing value.

But when nearly $1 trillion and 200 billion of foreign assets are kidnapped by US dollar assets and even have to beg the US government to guarantee investment interests, if we invest a lot of foreign reserves in the perilous European sovereign debt market, we will be suicidal.

At that time, Europe could only be saved, and China could not save it.

Three years ago, China launched the credit policy of "massive credit", which pushed the high economic growth.

At present, with the economic slowdown brought about by active regulation, many people advocate loosening monetary policy.

Instead of restarting the growth strategy, instead of investing abroad in overseas assets, it is better to remit to the public and spend more money on the domestic market.

This will not only solve the problem of the use of external storage, but also avoid the relaxation of monetary policy again.

In any case, in the second ten years of twenty-first Century, it is estimated that the world is too peaceful, but it is a challenge and an opportunity for China.

If macro policies can adapt to the trend and abandon the excessive administrative intervention and return to the market, the tide of national recession will fade away. At the same time, if we can realize Premier Wen Jiabao's remarks in the summer of Davos, "change the power from the system to excessive concentration and unrestricted conditions", then the Chinese economy will surely achieve the great growth of the quality of growth in the past ten years and sit firmly in the second place of the world.