The New Rules Will Allow Banks To Pay More Than 900 Billion &Nbsp, And The Central Bank Should Curb The Off Balance Sheet Financing.

　　 bill Financing is mainly used as a means of bank lending scale, and its amplification effect on money and credit has finally made the central bank use the killer.

In August 25th, the central bank issued document No. 209, which is called "the notice on the deposit of margin deposits into the deposit reserve reserve". In view of the rapid development of the letter of guarantee, the acceptance bill and the letter of credit business, we intend to expand the base of the deposit reserve, and deposit the margin deposit into the deposit reserve scope. The central bank has disclosed that this is part of the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the reserve requirement. The move is also seen by the industry as a new measure for central banks to tighten monetary policy in response to inflationary pressures.

Many from business People in the bank have disclosed that the bank has received the document, and the reserve should be paid in a classified, phased and proportionate manner. China, agriculture, industry, construction, and the five major banks and postal savings banks have been paid in three phases, and the deposit has been paid on a monthly basis from September 5th to 20%, 40% and 40%. Other banks were divided into six phases (six months) from September 15th. The first four periods were 15%, while the latter two were 20%.

A comprehensive investment bank research report, after the batch turned in, the banking system was about 900 billion yuan. capital Frozen.

For the above policy implications, a senior executive of ICBC told the Caixin new century reporter that the reasonableness of the policy was not evaluated. However, the deposit of guarantee, acceptance bill, letter of credit and other business was customer assets. When it was accepted, it should be deducted from the funds and incorporated into the general deposit.

For the negative effects of such a margin, a central bank personage introduces that note business idling refers to deposit in margin, open bank acceptance bill and silver discount, then discounted funds as margin, open bank acceptance bill and discount the bill, which is a cycle of lack of real trade background, which makes monetary credit become a geometric increase.

A banking researcher said the central bank's move was mainly to further expand the use of bills for off balance sheet financing. The central bank used to control credit. Now the attitude is to take measures to reduce the off balance sheet business. In order to deal with the new deal, the bank will take the initiative to adjust its business structure and reduce the scale of off balance sheet business.

He pointed out that this is the biggest blow to small and medium-sized banks that are keen on such businesses. "Such deposit accounts for 30% of the deposits of some city commercial banks, and liquidity will become a problem," he said.

Why deposit?

The so-called margin deposit is a deposit that a financial institution provides customers with settlement functions, such as credit instruments, financial intermediation, and undertaking third party guarantee responsibilities. Generally speaking, the margin deposit details disclosed by banks include "acceptance bill, letter of guarantee, letter of credit and guarantee" and so on, and the ratio is about 50%.

According to the progress of deposit, commercial banks will freeze funds 152 billion yuan, 221 billion 200 million yuan, 221 billion 200 million yuan, 82 billion 900 million yuan, 110 billion 500 million yuan and 110 billion 500 million yuan respectively from September to February next year, which are equivalent to 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.1, 0.15 and 0.15 percentage points respectively. Among them, the five largest banks will freeze 69 billion 200 million yuan, 138 billion 300 million yuan and 138 billion 300 million yuan respectively in September -11 month, and share holding banks will pay 44 billion 600 million yuan a month in -12 month in September and 59 billion 500 million yuan each month in -2 January.

At present, the bank pays the deposit reserve ratio at 21.5%, while the small and medium-sized banks are 19.5%. This is equivalent to raising the deposit reserve ratio between two and three times in the next six months. According to the CICC report, the move is equivalent to raising the deposit reserve ratio by 1.2 percentage points. Micro-blog, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Research Center, believes that this is equivalent to raising the deposit reserve ratio by 1.3 percentage points.

The deposits of financial institutions are general deposits, and should be included in the ratio of deposit to loan. The negative interest rate and the average daily loan to deposit ratio pressure have prompted banks to increase the source of margin deposits and spare no effort to convert general deposits into margin deposits. Since margin deposits are included in the loan to deposit ratio assessment, the denominator of the loan to deposit ratio is increased, and the base of the deposit reserve is not included.

The researchers said that this year, some small and medium-sized banks have greater liquidity pressure. In order to obtain deposits, they often adopt such a way: loans to enterprises, and then enterprises will deposit some of their credit funds as deposit deposits, banks will then issue acceptance bills, and enterprises will take drafts to another bank for discount. In this way, enterprises can get more capital, and banks also get a deposit.

The example of the central bank people mentioned above shows how enterprises and banks can make money financing. First, suppose that a company that has no capital in itself first borrows 10 million yuan from a bank and then transfers it to deposit immediately, and takes it as a deposit. If the margin is 50%, it can issue a 20 million yuan acceptance bill. Then the enterprise will take this acceptance bill to his bank discount and deduct the discount rate to get about 18000000 yuan of funds. Then, with the sum of $40 million as the margin, the draft will be accepted as a deposit and a 80 million yuan acceptance bill. Then it will be 160 million yuan and 320 million yuan. ?

He believes that small and medium-sized banks are keen on this way. On the one hand, they can not grab large projects, and on the other hand, they are unwilling to lend to SMEs. Therefore, they can only engage in the financing business of banks more or more between banks or enterprises.

Curb off balance sheet

In the first half of 2011, the bank increased the acceptance bill to 1 trillion and 330 billion yuan. This type of off balance sheet financing accounted for 17% of the total social financing in the same period, which was more than 5 times the end of 2009.

According to E Yongjian, a researcher at Bank of China, the operation of bill financing has attracted considerable attention this year. From the perspective of financing new bills, the first three months continued negative growth, from April to July, for 4 consecutive months. At the same time, the discount rate of bills has fluctuated considerably.

Taking the 6 month bill straight rate in the Yangtze River Delta as an example, the -2 month rose in January, and the monthly interest rate reached 0.85% in February 10th. Then it began to descend, and it began to rise rapidly after reaching a low of 0.48% in early May, rising to 0.9% at the end of 7.

He believes that this may reflect a significant increase in demand for short-term funds, and a decline in demand for medium and long term financing, indicating that corporate investment willingness to reduce, and borrowing funds mainly to deal with short-term liquidity demand.

As of the end of 6, the balance of commercial bills was $6 trillion and 700 billion, while the balance of bills financing was only 1 trillion and 360 billion yuan, far below the stock vote data. The aforementioned researcher believes that this indicates that the scale of the current bill financing is actually very small, and it is more likely that the bill does not enter the bank assets and is directly bought by the pool of financial products. In particular, in July, the CBRC banned financial products from transferring their credit products to the table through purchase of bills, and without direct discount, it would be more favored by banks.

Tang Yayun, a banking analyst at Northeast Securities (18.95, -0.64, -3.27%) believes that the central bank wants to restrict the off balance sheet business of small and medium-sized banks, but has no power nor power to check the compliance level of each bill. Therefore, the central bank raises the cost of the off balance sheet business of small and medium-sized banks by putting the margin deposit into the deposit scope, leaving the small and medium-sized banks themselves to measure whether to continue to do this business.

A fund macroeconomic researcher said that the central bank has widened the deposit reserve scope, and the intention behind it has not been explained. It can only be figured out by the market. The new policy and the direct increase of the deposit reserve ratio are more moderate.

The bank researcher said that the new policy has expanded the room for monetary policy control and expanded the space. At the same time, the implementation cost is relatively low. In the short term, it will impact the real economy, especially the small and medium-sized banks which are more dependent on margin deposits. It needs the central bank to take hedging measures in the implementation process.

Influence geometry

A brokerage banking researcher said the move had limited impact on overall bank earnings, but would further restrict lending to small and medium-sized banks.

Hongyuan securities (14.41, -0.10, -0.69%) research believes that short-term banks are more disadvantageous to large banks, but the pressure on medium and small banks with medium term margin will be even greater. Take the 2011 mid term measurement data as an example, Shenzhen Development Bank, Nanjing Bank (8.21, -0.10, -1.20%), Minsheng Bank (5.86, -0.12, -2.01%), Huaxia Bank (10.36, -0.22, -2.08%), Everbright Bank (3.05, -0.04, -1.29%) and Bank of Communications (4.73, -0.04, -0.84%) have a greater impact. These bank deposits account for more than 10% of the total deposits (although the bank is less than 10%, but the deposit ratio is high). The biggest pressure should be the Bank of communications, with a high turnover rate and a short grace period. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (9.29, -0.08, -0.85%) (micro-blog), Industrial Bank (13.18, -0.21, -1.57%) (micro-blog), China Merchants Bank (11.91, -0.11, -0.92%) (micro-blog) and Bank of Beijing (9.71, -0.15, -1.52%) have relatively small pressure. Workers and peasants in the four major banks, because of the good foundation of deposits, it is estimated that the pressure will not be too great.

Tang Yayun explained that the impact on small and medium-sized banks is manifested in the following aspects: the static capital yield rate will decrease; it will make it adjust assets, or even shrink credit; it may also increase the intensity of money withdrawal from the money market and increase the liabilities cost of banks.

"Therefore, the performance of small and medium-sized banks is definitely affected, and revenues and profits have declined. It is estimated that the biggest impact is deep development, which has a profit of not more than 5%, and Huaxia Bank is about 3%-4%." Tang Yayun also pointed out that the market performance of bank shares has little effect, because banks' market performance has been depressed for a long time, reflecting various pessimism factors.

Small and medium banks may "refer to the first quarter of this year and are forced to raise liquidity through high cost liabilities, which is a pressure on net interest margins in the short term." Tang Yayun believes that it may also cause banks to raise liquidity by selling bond funds.

The head of the finance and accounting department of a joint-stock commercial bank told Caixin "new century" reporter that the bank has held a general meeting to discuss how to deal with this policy. "The business of paper financing is of course still going to be done, and some other channels will be eliminated through other channels."