Industry Forecast August Credit Or Innovation Low &Nbsp; M2 Growth Rate Decline.

The central bank has recently issued a notice to expand the deposit reserve scope, which is generally interpreted as a drastic tightening of liquidity measures. The researchers said that this measure is equivalent to 2 to 3 times, which has a greater impact on bank liquidity. However, the size of new credit in July was the lowest point this year, 492 billion 600 million yuan, down 7.55% from the same period last year, a decrease of 22.29% compared with the same period, and the effect of tightening liquidity is obvious. Even so, the pace of austerity is still not relaxed. Industry predicts new growth in August loan The scale dropped steadily, with a scale of around 490 billion yuan.

Since the beginning of this year, China's economic growth is still strong. In order to stabilize prices and manage inflation, regulators continue to warn the size of bank lending, requiring the banking system to control lending scale, making the scale of RMB loans more reasonable and appropriate, in line with the needs of economic development and preventing economic overheating, and avoiding investment and real estate bubble expansion due to excess liquidity, preventing inflation pressures from further aggravating.

Despite raising the deposit reserve ratio and raising interest rates several times to tighten the scale of new loans, the scale of new loans in the banking system has not been significantly reduced. Liquidity easing always exists and inflation pressure has never been reduced. However, from the new loan data in July, tightening policy is playing a role.

The number of new loans in July has reached the lowest level since this year. Most people in the industry indicated the scale of new loans in August. stable The possibility of easing down in July is greater than that in July. The notice that the central bank intends to expand the deposit reserve rate has also corroborated this point.

The CICC report predicts that new loans will be 499 billion yuan in August, and M2 will grow by 13.6% over the same period last year, a significant decrease compared with 14.7% in July.

Bank of communications Financial Research Center released August macroeconomic forecast data also predicted that the new loans in August will fall steadily. Considering that credit window guidance continues, demand for loans related to real estate and government financing platforms has declined, new loans in August will reach 500 billion yuan, and loans will grow to 18.5% year-on-year.

In the analysis of new loan data in July, Bank of Hong Kong predicted that new loans in August would be between 4700 and 490 billion yuan.

Some joint-stock banks also reflect that because of the strict implementation of the deposit to loan ratio, the regulation of the CBRC on financial products business and the greater pressure of debt business, the credit plan for the whole year may be difficult to complete. The annual credit is close to the lower limit of 7 to 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan for the whole year.

However, some agencies believe that the credit scale will exceed July in August.

A few days ago, the "August macro" released by state securities. Economics According to the data forecast report, new loans will rebound in August, and the scale is expected to be close to the same period last year, about 600 billion yuan.

According to the researcher of Soochow securities, according to the seasonal distribution of loans, the number of new loans in August was larger than that in July. Therefore, whether the total amount or the seasonal effect, the recent increase in new loans is expected to maintain a growth rate.