The Global Trade Environment Is Deteriorating, And China's Export Level Is Not Optimistic In The Second Half Of The Year.

China's exports hit a new high in July. China's export momentum remains strong only from data. but Foresight In view of the recent deepening of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States and the two bottom finding of the global economy, it is necessary for us to do so. Be vigilant Export in the second half year Shrinking risk 。

Europe, Japan and some emerging market economies constitute the main force driving China's export growth. At present, the European debt crisis stays at the financial level. In July, China's export growth to the European Union rose to 22.3%, and its export growth to Japan rose to 27.23%. Vietnam, Brazil and India emerging market economies also contributed significantly to China's export growth.

However, it is noteworthy that with the deepening of the US economy and the deepening of the European debt crisis, it is difficult for the emerging market economies to become independent in the future. The global trade environment may deteriorate and not be too optimistic about China's export environment.

First, in July, China's exports to the United States grew by 9.5% year-on-year, and has maintained at a single digit level for three consecutive months. Us wholesalers' inventory sales figures continue to rise, indicating that the US economy has increased pressure on inventory. After May, University of Michigan's consumer confidence index turned down, dropping to 54.9 in August, falling below the November 2008 low, hitting a record low of third. Data show that the first two low points occurred in the world from 1979 to 1982. Economic depression Period.

Secondly, the European debt crisis will gradually spread from the financial sector to the physical level, 2008 International. financial crisis After that, the levers of families and enterprises in many countries in the European Union have not yet been completely repaired.

In June, the EU's overall import data have not yet been released, but the import from Germany and France has seen a marked decline. Whether in the US or Europe, sovereign debt problems in developed countries will force the economy to continue to reduce leverage, which is not conducive to China's export growth.

In fact, some of our leading indicators are warning risks. Among them, CIMC container monthly shipments dropped significantly. According to historical experience, CIMC container monthly shipment accounts for about 50% of China's customs container export volume, and is ahead of China's customs container export volume for about 2 months. Since May, the monthly shipment volume of CIMC container has decreased continuously. In July, China's container export volume remained at 310 thousand boxes, and the monthly shipment volume of CIMC container dropped to about 100 thousand boxes, lower than the monthly average shipment level in the first half of the year. This phenomenon is worth vigilant. {page_break}

From the grassroots research results, the number of enterprise orders in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions that I concentrated on overseas oriented enterprises declined.

Huatai joint research report shows that since the Spring Festival, the number of orders for many export enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region has been slowing down year by year. In June and July, the number of orders was significantly lower. Some enterprises expect that this situation may be aggravated in the second half of the year.

CITIC Securities Research Report shows that in the Yangtze River Delta region, the sales revenue and total profit of some small and medium-sized enterprises which sell mainly to domestic products are still relatively good. Some export oriented processing enterprises have reduced the number of orders and the overall size. On the whole, overseas enterprises take risk control measures under the uncertain economic situation of their own, and convert single long list and large list into short lists and small bills, which objectively increases the difficulty of production and operation of China's export-oriented enterprises.

Over the past few years, China's foreign oriented enterprises have been troubled by unfavorable factors such as raw materials, labor and capital prices. However, under the environment of better external demand, ample orders and stable export growth, the impact of these adverse factors is not obvious. However, in recent years, under the background of unstable overseas markets and unstable external demand, the adverse effects of higher operating costs have gradually emerged. Although some export-oriented enterprises are transferring to lower cost regions, it is objectively beneficial to reduce the adverse effects caused by the loss of orders, but this approach should also be seen as a result of the rapid rise of business costs.

In the second half of the year, it is not possible to maintain that the growth rate of export month on month continues to maintain a single digit growth rate, or even a negative growth rate in a single month. Under the background of increasing uncertainty of external demand, China's monetary policy should go into the observation period correspondingly. The departments concerned should further strengthen the support for transformation and upgrading of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially export-oriented SMEs, in terms of finance, finance and taxation, and technical support.