Analysis Of Lint Price, Seed Cotton Price And Cotton Price Trend In August 12Th

In August 12, 2011, cotton The market is short of funds and the overall trend is weaker. At present, the market mainly hopes to stimulate cotton prices by State purchasing and storage, and cotton prices will remain weak in the short run. The world factory textile and clothing net brings you the lint price, seed cotton price and cotton price trend analysis in August 12, 2011, for reference only, not as a basis for transaction.

[international spot]

In August 11th, the price of China's main cotton imports rose steadily, while Brazil cotton rose 1.5 cents. Cotton and cotton in Central Asia rose 2 cents and Australia cotton rose 4.2 cents. According to the analysis of foreign exchange, ICE futures fell to below 100 cents and gradually entered the procurement price of textile enterprises. market The number of transactions is still mainly in China. While cotton itself and the external market are down, speculators are also concerned about China's purchasing and stockpiling, US monetary policy and the weak trend of demand. In addition, the USDA monthly report and the US cotton export weekly released tonight will guide the market's next move.

[International Futures]

In August 11th, the USDA monthly report surprised the market. The increase in US cotton output and export volume was not consistent with market expectations. ICE futures were strengthened after the opening of the futures market, but then the selling price led to a fall in cotton prices. In addition, the US cotton export weekly report shows that market demand is no improvement, and cotton prices may continue to explore the bottom. December contract opening price 97.57 (cents / pound, the same below), the highest price 99.36, the lowest price 95.78, closing price 96.77, settlement price 96.52, fell 128 points, turnover 11847 hands, 494 increase. On the same day, 14908 bags were registered, an increase of 531 packages, which was not tested.

[domestic stock]

In August 11th, domestic cotton Price The national cotton price A index (CNCotton A) representing the 229 class cotton prices in the mainland is 20883 yuan / ton, representing a decrease of 57 yuan / ton compared with August 10th. The national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) representing the 328 grade cotton price in the mainland is 19272 yuan / ton, down 73 yuan / ton.

[Zheng cotton futures]

In August 10th, when the big rescue market and the global stock index and commodity market rebounded, the Zheng cotton market opened slightly, but the intraday oscillation weakened, cotton prices rose and the positions gradually shifted to the 1205 contract. Among them, the average price of the CF1109 contract was 20465 yuan, up 135 yuan; the average price of CF1111 contract was 20570 yuan, up 190; the average price of CF1201 contract was 20630 yuan, up 200 yuan; the total turnover of the market was 791268 hands, 503936 hands less than the previous trading day, accumulative position 573972 hands, increased 5606 hands.

[cotton information]

The latest data show that in July, the average daily temperature of the main cotton producing area in the United States was 28.9 degrees Celsius, which was 1.1 degrees Celsius over the long term. In fact, the daily average temperatures of all cotton producing areas except California prefecture were longer than the long-term average temperature in that month. Among them, the average daily temperature in Texas and Oklahoma was 29.9 degrees Celsius and 30.5 degrees Celsius, all of which reached a record high in the past. In addition, the average rainfall of the main cotton producing area in the United States in July was only 46 millimeters, which was less than 60% of the normal level. So far, most of the total rainfall since this year has been below the normal level. Among them, the total rainfall in Texas and New Mexico was the lowest in the same historical period, and the cumulative rainfall in Louisiana and Oklahoma were all low in the same period. The long-term forecasts of the US National Weather Center show that drought will continue in most of the central and southern parts of the country and the western part of Texas before the cotton harvest.

[market review]

The decline has already weakened. Yesterday, the United States Agriculture The Ministry reported that cotton production was unexpectedly raised, making the market weak again. ICE futures fell to below 100 cents and gradually entered the procurement price of textile enterprises. At present, the few market transactions are still mainly in China. While cotton itself and the external market are down, speculators are also concerned about China's purchasing and stockpiling, US monetary policy and the weak trend of demand.

In the current new situation, investors should change their early pessimism and see that Chinese factors are turning around. The market has entered the bottoming stage, and the low ranking market has been increasing gradually, and the possibility of big drop is getting smaller and smaller.