In The Three Week, The Total Investment Was 95 Billion Yuan &Nbsp.

This week, whether the 1 - year or 3 - month central bank votes are issued at 1 billion yuan, the repo is still absent. The central bank's net investment in the open market also increased from 32 billion yuan last week to 44 billion yuan. Industry experts say that the central bank has maintained a net investment pattern in the face of a slowdown in capital, which has increased the expectation of raising rates or even raising interest rates. This month, economic data will be released before and after the announcement. currency The time window for the use of policy tools.

Yesterday, the issue price of 1 billion yuan and 3 month central bank was 99.24 yuan, and interest rate remained at 3.0801%, which was maintained at the level of income for sixth consecutive weeks. The 91 day repo was suspended for 4 weeks. As of this week, including the 1 year central bank, the scale of single issue has been stable for 1 billion consecutive years in four yuan.

In August 4th, the interbank offered rate (Shibor) in Shanghai, except for a slight rise in Shibor from next week, declined across the board and the market funds eased. On the same day, in the Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor), other than the overnight interest rate rose slightly, the remaining varieties continued to fall, and capital prices continued to fall. The 7 day interest rate dropped 83.26 basis points to 3.2666%.

"Seven day repurchase" interest rate It's down to 3.2%. This indicates that the possibility of re positioning the central bank is increasing this month, but it needs further observation. " A trader in a state-owned commercial bank said.

A trader in a city commercial bank believes that although the seven day repo rate has dropped sharply compared with the previous stage, the bank's general overtaking rate is not very high, and the entire capital plane system is still very fragile. If the central bank again raises the possibility that the seven day repo rate will exceed 10%, the cautious attitude of the market will probably increase with the publication of the July macro data.

"Insisting on stabilizing the general price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control" is the central task of the central bank in the second half of the year. The central bank's judgement of prices is that domestic inflation expectations are still strong, and the basis for stabilizing prices is not strong enough. Once the policy is loosened, there is a possibility of rebound.

Currency spanmitted by the Central Bank branch president policy The use of tools is the combination of interest rate, exchange rate, open market operation, deposit reserve ratio and macro Prudential Management. From this perspective, the use of deposit reserve ratio has dropped to fourth place.

According to market analysis, August 10th will be another sensitive time window for the central bank to increase interest rates or raise the required reserve ratio.

The yield curve shows that the two month market interest rate for the 3 month central bank has been closed at 3.3413%, up 0.28 basis points from the previous trading day, and the 1 year central bank rate is 3.76, down 2 basis points from Tuesday. The one or two market spreads are 26 basis points.

The above data also indicate that the funds have been improved. For this week, the central bank still has a net throw in. The market analysts said that the function of hedging liquidity in the open market has been lost. This does not exclude the intention of the central bank to use the interest margin to suppress the demand for the central bank. However, from the historical operation, the central bank's action has also increased the expected re positioning this month.

Data show that this week net investment from last week's 32 billion yuan to 44 billion yuan. The central bank has invested a total of 95 billion yuan in three consecutive weeks. Next week, the open market will expire as much as 192 billion yuan, which is the largest single week maturity level in August and nearly two months. It is widely expected that the open market operation or the volume and the interest rate of the central bank will also rise. At that time, the central bank's intentions will become clearer.