The Trend Of Cotton Prices Deviates From The Inside And Outside Of The Weather.

The US cotton has rebounded since its low point of 93.2 cents in July 26th, and it has closed for five consecutive trading days at 100 cents, and the short-term average has resumed its long position, and the market outlook is expected to continue to strengthen.

And Zheng cotton stalemate has been in the range of 21000 - 22000 yuan / ton interval for nearly half a month.

The recent drought in the United States, the domestic weather is normal.

August is a critical period for the growth of new cotton, and is also a time of speculation.

This year, because of the continuous drought in the main producing area of Dezhou, the growth of cotton (20550, -265.00, -1.27%) is poor.

According to the US Department of agriculture, as of July 31st, the emergence rate of new cotton buds in the United States was 90%, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous week, 96% in the same period last year, and 92% in the last five years. The overall fruit setting rate was 62%, an increase of 16 percentage points from the previous week, 68% last year and 62% 62% in the past five years.

The growth rate of new flowers was 60%, which was 1 percentage points higher than that of the previous week.

Recently, part of the early maturing area has been picked up, and the weather is hyped up.

In China, the weather is stable, and there is no obvious profit or bad tendency. The futures market lacks hype theme.

India liberalized exports and supplied the international market.

Recently, India announced that cotton exports will be fully liberalized in August and September in the remaining 2010/2011 cotton year.

In July 25th, the Cotton Advisory Committee of India released the latest production and sales forecast report in this year, increasing the total cotton production by 221 thousand tons to 5 million 525 thousand tons, reducing consumption by 374 thousand tons to 4 million 12 thousand tons, and ending stocks by 425 thousand tons to 893 thousand tons.

India cotton release export, Brazil cotton has begun picking, although the progress has been postponed compared with previous years, but by the end of July has also completed about 40%, the United States cotton will be on the market, domestic cotton will also be on sale in September, the whole international market cotton supply is relatively loose, the new and old cotton annual smooth pition.

In terms of demand, consumer demand is shrinking in the two big consuming countries, China and India.

Therefore, the supply and demand side is still bad.

Domestic spot market continued to slump, but downtrend

Domestic cotton spot market continued to slump.

After the sharp reduction in July, the price of grade three cotton fell to about 20000 yuan per ton, close to the new cotton purchase and storage price set by the state, reaching the psychological bottom of the market and slowing down.

Most of the cotton companies still have serious losses, and some even are insolvent. In this case, further price reduction is not a good solution for enterprises and banks.

Zheng cotton main air and single concentration, occupy the advantage

Since the middle of July, Zheng cotton has increased its holdings greatly, and the recent 1205 contracts are faster.

As of August 2nd, the total number of positions in the first 20 seats held a total of more than 186308 single, the first 20 seats were empty holders of 285521 pieces, the main air is highly concentrated, occupy the advantage.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the US cotton will continue in the near future.