Goldman Sachs: The Biggest Risk For China's Economy Is To Repeat Its Mistakes In The Second Half Of 2010.

In July 14th, Goldman Sachs The report sent to reporters showed that China's real economy rebounded strongly in June, but the overall economic growth in the two quarter still fell. Stronger than expected growth in the real economy will often alleviate the government's concern about the slowdown in economic growth. Goldman still expects the tightening of policy will ease in the future, but it will not be as loose as in the second half of 2010.

Goldman Sachs analysis showed that industrial added value data in June showed that Real economy The monthly growth rate rebounded strongly to 19%, breaking through the trend of 15%-16%, and the data in 4/5 were negative and single digit respectively. The analysis of the output of major industrial products such as electricity, steel and automobiles also confirmed this. It should be noted that the increase in industrial added value is often more volatile than that in the two quarter, but it is still rare in the first quarter, from negative growth to nearly 20% growth. Therefore, Goldman Sachs pays more attention to quarterly data in the assessment of growth trend. In the two quarter of 2011, the quarterly increase in industrial value added was about 8.5%, less than 18.1% in the first quarter.

Goldman Sachs said stronger than expected real economic growth is expected to ease policymakers' concerns about the slowdown in the real economy.

But this does not mean that the policy stance will not return to normal in the coming months, that is, the government may relax its tightening efforts. This is because policy tightening is mainly aimed at easing inflationary pressures, once the downward trend of CPI inflation is established. policy There will be some room for relaxation, but in view of the high inflation rate of CPI, there is limited room for policy leeway.

Because of the following reasons, Goldman Sachs believes that the growth rate of CPI is likely to decline gradually after August: 1) the cooling of demand will alleviate the fundamental inflationary pressure, while non food CPI and PPI have declined; 2)

As the pig grain ratio has reached a high level and the number of pig farms has been rising, the price of pork is expected to stabilize or decrease, which means that even if the absolute price is relatively unchanged at historical highs, the price growth will slow down year by year; 3)

The change of base year will become more obvious from August. Because the recent decline in food prices is likely to be the result of the government's release of pork reserves. Goldman cannot estimate the sustainability of government intervention because of the unclear government pork reserve data.

At present, Goldman Sachs's view is that the biggest risk facing the Chinese economy lies in the over relaxation of policies, resulting in a rebound in inflation pressure and a repeat of the second half of 2010. Goldman Sachs believes that the government is fully aware of such potential risks, so policy adjustment will be more cautious than last year.