The Actual Export Volume Growth Is Very Limited.

The trend of China's foreign trade deceleration is likely to continue in the second half of the year.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China completed in the first half of this year.

This group is not low trade data, although exceeded the early 10% of the National Business Conference on the conservative expectations of the government, but 5, June import and export growth rate of two indicators of a continuous sharp slowdown, causing concern in the industry.

Huo Jianguo, President of the Ministry of Commerce, warned in July 13th that if the trade growth rate continued to fall, it would be the whole macro level in the second half of the year.

In fact, the adjustment of several trade policies in the first half of the year is almost settled.

A foreign trade system source said that the export tax rebate rate of textile and clothing more than 100 tariff codes was reduced from 16% to 11%. This proposal has recently been rejected by the senior level. The only unknown trend is that the "promotion mouth", a policy breakthrough seen as a new strategy for China's foreign trade, is still uncertain.

According to sources, whether there is a divergence between the ministries and commissions on the reduction of daily consumption goods represented by some luxury goods, and this is only a small part of the policy of "promoting the export" policy. So far, there is no consensus on how to support the import of the most important high-end equipment manufacturing equipment.

Foreign trade slowdown concerns

The deceleration of exports has already appeared in May. In May, China's export growth slowed sharply from 29.9% in April to 19.3%. In June, this figure slipped to 17.9% again.

Huo Jianguo said that this trend may continue. From the external environment, the external economic turmoil and the prospect of recovery of demand are unknown. Although the market generally expects that the economy will not have a two dip, sovereign debt and other issues still restrict the improvement of world trade.

"The reality is that the second half of the external demand is not very good, and the possibility of going bad is not small."

In terms of internal environment, the sharp rise in raw material costs faced by Chinese exporters and the pressure of continued appreciation of the renminbi also partly contributed to the deceleration of exports.

His judgment was corroborated by export enterprises.

Zhao Yong, President of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, one of the largest exporters of energy-saving lamps, told reporters in July 13th that the main raw material for producing energy-saving lamps was 10 times faster than that of the beginning of the year. The company tried to raise the export quotas by 20%-30% from May. The price adjustment strategy directly led to the total suspension of the major customers of the enterprises. A buyer and seller are still playing the price game, and two of the importers are waiting to see whether the price of raw materials will be adjusted.

Orders are clearly shrinking not only for energy-saving lamps, but for one industry.

Lu Longsheng, general manager of Shanghai's Pegasus group, a big exporter of Chinese clothing, said that the price of raw materials such as cotton was unstable, so that the game between buyers and sellers was continuing. The current company's orders in hand were significantly reduced than in the first half of the year, he said. Roughly speaking, the price range of textile and garment industry exports this year is generally 20%-30%.

However, Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at China International Economic Exchange Center, analyzed that the export slowdown has already been realized. The possibility of a sharp decline in export growth on the basis of 17.9% in June is not large.

Many agencies have locked China's export growth zone at 15%-20% this year.

Is textile export tax rebate reduced?

This year, the trend of the three foreign trade policies has attracted the attention of the industry. One is the change of the RMB exchange rate policy. The two is the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy, especially whether the export tax rebate rate of the labor-intensive industries such as textiles and clothing will be reduced. Three is the "promotion port" which has been promoted to a strategic height, and what policy path will it take.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, said that the appreciation of RMB has been over half of the year and over half of the process. It is expected that the exchange rate will rise to 6.3 against the US dollar at the end of the year, which means that the RMB will appreciate by 2.6% in the second half of the year after the appreciation in the first half of 2.33%.

During the spring fair this year, the Ministry of finance has submitted a proposal to the senior level, which lowered the export tax rebate rate of 5 percentage points for textile and clothing more than 100 tariff codes.

According to the time point of tax rebate adjustment in the past, exporters were worried that the implementation of the measure might be fulfilled in July.

Wang Qianjin, an analyst at the first textile network, said that one must be alert to the fact that the export price caused by price factors is inflated.

He said that the export situation of goods including textiles and garments was not as optimistic as the first half of the year.

Taking clothing as an example, although China's garment export volume increased by 23.7% in 1-6 months, the growth of commodity export prices was behind the growth rate, and the actual export volume growth was very limited.