Chen Ningyuan: The Arrival Of The Era Of Pork Macroeconomics

Because of the continuous high CPI, pork has become a star, and its price has become China.

The reason is simple: the statistics of the Ministry of agriculture show that since 2000, the proportion of scattered pig farms in China dropped from over 80% to 50% in 2007 (50 of the farms were scattered). In such a reality, how can monetary policy affect pig farming? Of course, it can be said that the fluctuation of pork prices has the problem of pig raising cost and the problem of pig raising cycle. However, the extent of these problems should be enlarged to what extent can they be linked to the central bank's monetary policy, but there is no ready format.

Actual observation

In 2009, when monetary policy was very loose and the market was full of worries about the flood of liquidity, the price of pork declined. That was because the supply of live pigs was much higher.

The most strange year of change was in 2008. Although the financial crisis caused the lack of global liquidity, the price of pork was once the highest level before this new high.

The emergence of this highest level has nothing to do with economic fundamentals, which is caused by the lack of pigs.

Because of the prevalence of blue ear disease in southern provinces from 2006 to 2007, the supply of raw pigs from 2007 to 2008 was in short supply. In 2007, 565 million 83 thousand and 300 pigs were slaughtered in the country, nearly 47 million less than 2006 years ago ("China animal husbandry Yearbook (2008)").

Although some people have summed up the fluctuation of hog prices in China in the new century for a period of three years, is this cycle not reliable? Is it still necessary to test for a longer time?

Because the price of meat in the CPI data weight, everything may not be negligible, but this may be too demanding for our patience.

Even if pork prices are observed for more than 10 times in the three year cycle, it will take thirty years.

But from the three year cycle of the 2008 high historical record, China

But if the future is not a pig raising business but a beef cattle business, what should we do?

In fact, the fluctuation of prices is a normal economic phenomenon. It is not necessary to argue whether the price will rise or fall.

Although the complexity of the price problem is often not a rational analysis, it can terminate the debate.

Because the fluctuation of prices is not only related to people's livelihood and economic operation, but also how the government should manage prices, and the government now manages prices to take CPI cards.

If it is high, it should be lowered.

The pork in its weight has the greatest impact, so it will be logical to manage the price of pork well as the main responsibility of the government.

To eliminate the impact of pork on the weight of CPI and to meet the coming of the era of pork macroeconomics, the government has another way to intervene in pork prices directly by administrative means.

But there are not many available means. There are two kinds: first, the price limit; the second is to use the state's reserve means.

But this is a departure from the regulation of market prices.

Since the reform and opening up, the price of pork often fluctuates, but people are not able to eat it.

Before 1978, China * s pork prices remained stable, but only by ticket.

Because how many meat people actually eat in real life, how much meat the market can sell, and the price fluctuation of pork is the result of natural market paction.

There is a big change in a time node, and it is not necessarily a bad thing.

Pork prices are half cheaper, and sales are unlikely to double.

Similarly, the price of meat has doubled, and it will not be less than half sold.

But in such a fluctuation, people who raise pigs will naturally adjust the number of pigs they raise.

Nowadays, meat is expensive and there are more people to raise pigs.

To this batch of piglets have grown into pigs, and the price of pork will naturally decrease due to the full supply of live pigs.

This will take time, and artificially advance into the era of pork macro economic management may be counterproductive.

I hope China's pork will always be as cute as lazy pig and keep a certain degree of fatalistic spirit, and let the case of economic crisis arise from a pork effect in economics textbooks.