Market Supply And Demand Imbalance MDI Prices Are Still Running High

Yantai Wanhua, Cangzhou Dahua and other suppliers have all been forced to stop because of the force majeure of the devices. Since the beginning of the year, the market prices of MDI and TDI (main raw materials for polyurethane production) have been rising. Experts believe that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main factor affecting the price of MDI and TDI, but there seems to be a slight difference between the recent two prices.

The latest report of CITIC Securities shows that the market prices of pure MDI and aggregated MDI have dropped somewhat, but still remain at a high level.

At present, the market price of TDI stands at 50000 yuan / ton.

The MDI market price dropped slightly, at 27000 yuan / ton.

Many manufacturers of suppliers are stopped by force majeure, which is a direct factor leading to tight supply and demand for TDI and MDI.

In addition to the 240 thousand tons of production and maintenance in Shanghai, and the NPU Nanyang plant accident in South Korea, the Yantai Wanhua (600309) Ningbo plant is about to expand production and overhaul, resulting in tight supply in the MDI market. (600230) the 30 thousand tons of plants have been stopped due to the explosion of the nitrification plant; the gas leak in the Caojing TDI plant in Shanghai has occurred; the 160 thousand ton plant has been completely shut down for 20 days; after that, the equipment has been detected for a short period of time; a 24 thousand ton device in Gansu silver light and 20 thousand tons of Laiyang giant power have also been in a state of shutdown and semi shutdown; Shanghai BASF device has been overhauled in September, and the supply market has been limited, resulting in almost no normal supply of domestic TDI devices.

In addition, the Southern China market's hard hitting parallel imports also made the TDI price tighter. Taiwan South Asia TDI device stopped in August 12th in technical failure, and 5-6 months, TDI devices in Korea and Japan all showed varying degrees of force majeure.

These make the global supply in a tight situation, and it is difficult to split the goods into the Chinese market, resulting in a serious gap in the domestic market TDI.

It is learnt that Yantai Wanhua's 120 thousand ton capacity Yantai plant has been overhauled and resumed production, resulting in a fall in the price of MDI.

In the third quarter, TDI's domestic supply performance will remain very tight.

Yantai Wanhua's Ningbo installation will enter the maintenance period after the "eleven" long vacation. The Shanghai Caojing device, which was originally expected to resume in mid September, will not be resumed until October. Domestic MDI supply is still tight.

The industry believes that if Shanghai Lian Heng can drive smoothly at the end of September, the price of MDI will continue to fall.

The production of TDI's shutdown device is relatively delayed. Cangzhou Dahua is currently overhauling its 30 thousand ton TDI plant, which is expected to be completed in mid October.

However, the restart of the TDI device is still required to be submitted to the Hebei provincial safety supervision and Administration Bureau.

Due to the fact that the time of examination and approval can not be estimated, it is not yet possible to predict the return time.

BASF Shanghai TDI plant is still under repair and is expected to resume production by the end of September.

Yantai Wanhua's Ningbo installation will enter the maintenance period after the "eleven" long vacation. The Shanghai Caojing device, which was originally expected to restart in mid September, is still in the parking area. It is expected that it will be resumed after October.

The new 40 thousand ton / year TDI plant of Karun petrochemical in Iran will be put into operation in early October, and its products will mainly be exported to markets including China and India.

Many experts believe that from the end of 9 to the beginning of October, due to the reduction of force majeure, the supply of goods will gradually increase.

Cheng Lei, an analyst at Ping An Securities, believes that the price of TDI and MDI is mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand. In recent years, the growth of TDI demand is not obvious, which is affected by the growth of capacity. Last year, domestic demand for TDI was around 380 thousand tons, and the capacity was about 130 thousand tons.

Although BASF has been relieved of its 16 tons of production capacity gradually increased load last year, the gap is still large.

However, with the expansion of Cangzhou Dahua and other devices, the gap will gradually decrease.

Some people in the industry expect TDI prices to continue to decline.

There was a certain bias in the market for MDI demand. It was thought that TDI would be replaced by MDI. However, in the past two years, the demand for TDI has not been reduced, but it has greatly increased, exceeding expectations.

Liu Xuming, an analyst with CITIC Securities, pointed out in his report that the global supply of TDI is tight and will remain high in the short term.

9 the TDI ocean going cargo to Hong Kong in the first half of the month did not impact the domestic market, and TDI prices continued to climb.

Dow announced that its TDI price in Europe will increase from 100 euros / ton in October 1st to 100 USD / tonne in the Middle East, India and North Africa.