Interest Rate Increase Is Expected To Rise&Nbsp; Cotton Is Still Difficult To Get Out Of The Weak Situation

the near future cotton Due to the rebound of the dollar index and a sharp drop, coupled with the flat cotton yarn sales in the downstream, cotton is still difficult to get out of the weak situation in the later period.

Spot prices fell steadily

Last week, China's cotton price index fell steadily, and the market turnover did not expand spin The number of enterprises is still small. On the other hand, the purchase quantity of enterprises is small and the price is low. Recently, Shandong Weiqiao Textile Co., Ltd. stopped purchasing some of its acquisition sites. Even if it did, its quality requirements were very strict, yarn The quotation has also been lowered.

Interest rate increase is expected to rise

On June 14, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the CPI in May was 5.5%. Subsequently, the Central Bank announced that it would raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5% from June 20, the sixth time in half a year. At the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) was 76.34 trillion yuan, up 15.1% year on year; The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 54.0 trillion yuan, up 16.9% year on year; The balance of RMB loans was 50.77 trillion yuan, up 17.1% year on year. A series of data shows that the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the near future.

The cancelled quantity of American cotton export contracts exceeds the newly signed quantity

Last Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture released the US cotton export report from June 10 to 16, 2011. In that week, the number of textile factory contracts cancelled exceeded the newly signed number, resulting in a net contract volume of US upland cotton exports of 0.51 million tons in 2010/2011, of which 3800 tons were cancelled by China.

Bulk commodities are under pressure

The US Labor Department said that after adjusting for seasonal factors, the US CPI rose 0.2% in May; Core CPI increased by 0.3%, the largest increase since July 2008. The risk aversion of investors in the market increased, the US dollar was sought after, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, forcing the US stock market and commodity market to fall as a whole. At the same time, the Federal Reserve lowered its economic growth forecast and announced that QE2 would end on June 30 as scheduled, but kept the ultra-low interest rate unchanged, and the late ICE cotton period would continue to show weakness.

China's textile import and export situation in May is not optimistic

According to customs statistics, China imported 144600 tons of cotton in May, 65900 tons less than that in April, or 31.31%; 51300 tons of imported cotton yarn, a 17.35% month on month decrease and a 45.36% year-on-year decrease; The export of cotton yarn was 33500 tons, down 28.96% month on month and 42.15% year on year.

The author believes that the downturn of the downstream textile industry, the continuous tightening of macro monetary policy, and the decrease of import and export data month on month on year will lead to the weakness of cotton in the later period.