Experts: Inflation Pressure Is Hard To Ease

The price situation in China is still not optimistic in June.

On the 11 day of the Fifth International Summit on China's economic growth and cycle, Zhang Zhuoyuan, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Economic Research Institute, pointed out that the impact on June residents

While inflationary pressures are increasing, economic growth has also slowed down. Worries about stagflation are beginning to emerge.

However, Liu Shucheng, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is not worried about this. He believes that China's economy will enter an "moderate growth interval" with an interval of 8%-10%.

According to Zhang Zhuoyuan, in the first four months of this year's CPI5.1% increase, the new price increase factor is only 2.3 percentage points. According to the national development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, the year-end warping factor reached 2.67 percentage points. "This means that even if there is no longer a new price increase factor, the annual CPI increase will reach nearly 5%."

Zhang Zhuoyuan pointed out that, from an international perspective, this year's international bulk.

Zhang Zhuoyuan has the same judgement as professor Hu Naiwu of the school of economics, Renmin University of China. He believes that there will be moderate inflation in China in 2011. The annual inflation rate is expected to be between 4% and 5%. The high inflation point will appear in the second quarter. After that, it will become stable on the basis of a slight decrease.

A person from the National Bureau of statistics also believes that this year's pressure on price increases is greater under the combined effects of larger import inflation pressure, cost push, more fluidity and higher tail factor.

However, our country has achieved a bumper harvest of grain for seven consecutive years, coupled with an oversupply of industrial goods, so the price is still controllable.

In analyzing the future trend of inflation, Zhang Zhuoyuan pointed out that this inflation pressure will continue for a period of time, and the state of CPI rising 4%-6% may last for two or three years. "Because this inflation is the result of excessive supply of money over a longer period of time, it is also the result of product cost accumulation and accumulation, and it is also affected by the rise in commodity prices in the international market."

Lin Zhaomu, executive vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, also pointed out:

Although the economic performance data released in the first 4 months released the signal of slowing economic growth, Liu Shucheng did not think that China's economy would be stagflation or "hard landing". He thought it was only a normal performance after returning to normal after the resumption of economic recovery.

Liu Shucheng believes that during the "12th Five-Year" period, China's economy will be pformed from the V reversal trend towards the moderate growth of the financial crisis. However, due to the high starting point, there will be little room for continued rapid growth.

In the "12th Five-Year" period, with the pformation of the economic development mode as the main line, Liu Shucheng judged that the moderate range of China's economic growth is between 8%-10%. "When the actual economic growth rate is 10% higher, it is necessary to implement a moderate tightening macro-control policy.

When the actual economic growth rate is below 8%, it is necessary to implement a moderate expansionary macroeconomic regulation and control policy.

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In addition, according to Liu Shucheng's prediction, in 12th Five-Year, China's per capita national income will reach US $4400 -6000 US dollars and enter the middle and high income group of the world bank database.