USDA Will Substantially Raise Global Cotton Production And Inventory
In May 11, 2011, the US Department of Agriculture announced the latest monthly report on supply and demand of agricultural products.
Cotton: US 2011/2012 cotton forecast includes
Supply quantity
And the reduction of consumption, resulting in year-end inventory increase.
At the same time, when the initial inventory ratio decreased significantly, the US cotton production was predicted to be 18 million packages and the total supply would be reduced.
Domestic demand is expected to be 3 million 800 thousand packs.
The reduction in supply and the increase in foreign production have led to a reduction in US cotton exports.
The year-end inventory is expected to be 2 million 500 thousand packs, an annual growth rate of 43%, but it is still the lowest level since 1990/1991.
The average price of cotton is forecast to be 95 to 115 cents / pound.
Global 2011/2012 supply and demand data forecast for the first time showed that production increased to a record 124 million 700 thousand packages, of which India, China and Pakistan accounted for 70% of the total output.
Supply mitigation and global
economic growth
Boosting cotton consumption increased by 3 million packs, higher than the level of the previous three years, but still below the level of 2006/2007 and 2007/2008.
Global cotton trade is expected to reach 40 million packages, mainly in China.
Global year-end
Stock
It is expected to increase to nearly 48 million packages, an increase of 13% over the initial level, but the inventory consumption ratio is still relatively tight 40%.
The US 2010/2011 output has basically not been adjusted, which is the final forecast for the year.
The output of 2010/2011 in the world has not been adjusted, and China's output has increased by 1 million by the same rate as that in India.
The drop in global consumption is mainly due to the decrease in consumption in India and Pakistan.
The recent drop in demand in China has led to a 1 million 500 thousand cut in imports, which is offset by increases in Pakistan's imports and imports from Turkey.
The global year-end inventory has increased by nearly 1 million bales.
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