The Tax Rebate Rate Is Hard To Reduce &Nbsp, And The 2011 Export Of Textile Products Will Increase To 15%.

Recent "textile and clothing export" Tax rebate rate The rumor that the 5 points will be reduced to 11% will be repeated again and again. The industry believes that, in view of the current pressure on textile exports, the possibility of a sharp reduction in export tax rebates in the short term is less likely.

In the context of rapid rise in costs, accelerated appreciation of the renminbi, tightening monetary policy, export tax rebate policies or changes and trade protectionism, China's textile and apparel industry Export growth It will obviously slow down, and the industry export growth in 2011 is expected to drop to 15% from 23.59% last year.

Export tax rebate rate is short or difficult to reduce

Recently, the rumors that the state will cut down the export tax rebate rate of textile and clothing from 5 points to 11%, spread like wildfire, has brought a great shock to the textile and garment industry. Analysts believe that from the perspective of the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of the industry development mode, the reduction or even abolition of the export rebate rate of textile and garment is reasonable, but the adjustment of this time and the 5 percentage point adjustment is still unexpected.

China has increased 4 times from August 2008 to April 2009. Textile and clothing The export tax rebate rate of products. At present, the export tax rebate rate of textiles and clothing is 16%. The tax rebate rate of 16% plays an important role in domestic textile and garment export enterprises with fierce competition and low profits.

According to the Ministry of commerce data, the average profit margin of China's export enterprises in 2010 was 1.47%, lower than the average profit level of industrial enterprises. In 2011 and February, the export profit margin of enterprises in the market dropped to 1.44% in 2011. The latest report released by China's first textile network shows that if the export rebate rate of textile and clothing is reduced by 5 percentage points, it will cause heavy losses to industry exports in the short term, and this unfavorable factor will also be transmitted to the already fragile market in the upper and middle reaches.

Wang Qian, chief analyst of the first textile network, said that in 2010, the tax rebate for China's textile and clothing exports amounted to about 210 billion yuan, accounting for 28.8% of the total export tax rebates in China. A simple calculation, the tax rebate reduced 5 points, then the textile export tax rebate reduced by about 65 billion yuan, equivalent to the textile industry's profit 1/3, its impact on the whole industry is very small. "In view of the multiple pressures on textile exports, the possibility of a sharp reduction in export rebates is unlikely in the short term, even if the adjustment is not too large. In the year, it will control 1 to 2 percentage points, and try to maintain a relatively stable export environment." Wang Qian said.

Export growth has dropped to around 15% this year.

As a traditional industry in China, the textile and garment industry has always been an outgoing type. In the past two years, the proportion of exports has declined, along with the transformation of the industry development mode. However, the dependence on foreign trade is still about 40%. The export quality of the industry is still an important criterion for measuring the development trend of the industry.

In fact, China's textile and clothing export has been in a rapid growth since last year, reversing the negative growth situation. In 2010, with the gradual recovery of the international market and the increased demand for replenishment of buyers, the export volume of textiles and clothing for the first time exceeded 200 billion US dollars in 2010, reaching US $206 billion 530 million, an increase of 23.59% over the previous year, a record high. Textile exports continued to maintain a high growth rate of 23% in the first quarter of this year.

However, there are also hidden worries behind the rapid growth of exports. Wang pointed out that in the first quarter of the export growth rate, about 8 percentage points were "inflated" by the low base in the first quarter of last year. Further deducting costs, driving up prices and appreciating the renminbi, the real export growth level is lower. This low base effect will soon begin to weaken in the two quarter of this year.

In addition, during the "12th Five-Year" period, China's foreign trade policy is changing from a positive to a neutral or even a shrinking direction. During this period, the RMB exchange rate appreciation, labor cost increase, export tax rebate rate reduction, raw material price rise, trade barriers and other factors are affecting. China's export "low cost and high growth" mode is difficult to continue, and the era of "high cost and low growth" of textile and clothing has arrived. {page_break}

The industry expects that during the "12th Five-Year" period, China's textile exports will aim at stabilizing the share of the international market, and the average annual growth rate will remain at 5%-8% level, of which value growth will become one of the important engines to stimulate the growth of China's textile exports.

For this year's export situation, Wang said that taking into account the world economic situation, changes in demand for major economies, exchange rate fluctuations and domestic investment and consumption situation, under the huge foreign trade base of China, we continue to expand the original market space to face the problem of "ceiling". It is estimated that the growth rate of textile exports will be reduced to around 15% in 2011, and the price increase will become the main driver of export growth.