The Pressure Of RMB Appreciation Increased Sharply In April.

Yesterday (May 10th) the third round of the Sino US Strategic Economic Dialogue entered the second day. As the outside world expected that China's trade deficit will ease the pressure of RMB appreciation in the first quarter, the April closing price of the yuan rose 20 basis points to 6.4919 on Monday compared with the US dollar.

Central parity for two consecutive days to create new high

The central bank authorized the foreign exchange trading center to announce that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar yesterday was 6.4950, which was 38 basis points higher than the central parity of the previous day. The second consecutive trading days hit a new high since 2005. Under the guidance of the strengthening of the intermediate price, the closing price of the RMB against the US dollar has also edged up, trading all day in the 6.4914~6.6955 range.

The import and export data released yesterday morning showed that China's foreign trade surplus reached 11 billion 423 million US dollars in April, higher than the US $4 billion 200 million expected by the market, and the total export volume was once again refreshed in December last year.

The United States held in Washington yesterday. Strategic economy On the dialogue, China rebutted the accusation that the renminbi was undervalued and that China enjoyed unfair trade advantages. Commerce Minister Chen Deming said trade data confirmed his view that "from a trade perspective, the West's worries and doubts about China's renminbi are groundless, because China's trade surplus has been decreasing over the past three years."

Yesterday, there was no overseas capital delivery market. At 16:41 Beijing time, the US dollar NDF 6.3450/00 was almost flat compared with the previous trading day at 6.3420. The US dollar index continued to stabilize and rebound yesterday. At 19:19 Beijing time, the highest value was 75, and the euro was hovering near the low of three weeks against the dollar.

Favorable balance or pressure of appreciation in April

Zhou Hao, a Chinese economist at ANZ bank, said: "compared with last month's surplus and the first quarter deficit, April Balance of trade surplus There is a sharp rebound and China's trade surplus is expected to remain high this year. Meanwhile, China's export industry will remain strong.

Zhou Hao said that the renminbi appreciation trend will not change any more, but it will be accelerated because of the high surplus this month. "It is estimated that at the end of the second quarter, the RMB will be traded on the 6.38 to 6.43 line against the US dollar, which will have an increase of at least 1% or so compared with the current level."

Qiao Hong, Goldman Sachs economist at China, believes that the continued tightening of domestic policies in the two quarter may inhibit imports growth, and the trade surplus is expected to remain relatively high in the coming months and increase the pressure of RMB appreciation, especially in the context of continued weakening of the US dollar.

"But if the next few months Exit There is a more obvious slowdown in growth, so the government may be more worried about the real economy activities of export oriented industries. The renminbi is expected to appreciate in the next 12 months, with an annual increase of 6%.