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American Apparel: Healthy Growth Is A Solid Foundation, And The Return Of Value Is Increasingly Clear.

2011/4/27 15:33:00 49

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Casual Wear Leading Brand Mei Bang Clothing Pressure

Profit forecast and investment suggestion

We have always maintained that

American Apparel

The company is the most innovative and innovative leader in the domestic development mode.

Leading brand of casual wear

。

Although the promotion process of MC new brand is constantly twists and turns, especially in the first quarter, the company's profit growth has undergone a very big test, but we can seize the time to invest.

From the current business situation, the two quarter has already reflected the trend of performance improvement.

The implementation of a series of measures in the first half of this year will also drive the sustained growth in the second half of the year.

We expect that the company will start a more obvious improvement in the three quarter, and the net profit in the first three quarters is expected to increase slightly.

On the whole, there are three key aspects of the company's operations in the second half of the year:

1, the level of income will continue at least 30% faster development momentum, so as to flatten out.

Cost pressure

Play a key role.

The trend of rapid growth of MB brand recovery is obvious. The income of MC brand can also achieve substantial growth due to low base and quarterly improvement of products. The sustained and rapid growth of revenue scale will be crucial to the reduction of cost rate.

2, gross margin will return to last year's high level.

The reduction of discount strength, the gradual increase in the rate of increase and the continuous improvement of brand recognition have made the gross profit margin of the two quarter return to normal level. It is estimated that the gross profit margin of the three quarter can basically revert to the high level of last year.

3, the absolute cost level is estimated to remain at a higher level in the second half of the year, but the cost rate is expected to decrease gradually. The annual sales and management cost rate is expected to be around 30.5%.

It is expected that a series of cost control measures will take effect step by step, so the absolute cost level is still expected to be higher, but the sustained and rapid growth of the income base will play a role in the cost of the cost control.

To sum up, because of the sustained and rapid growth of income and the rising trend of gross profit margin, MB has enjoyed a healthy growth. This will be a solid guarantee for the performance to return to the track of rapid growth.

It is expected that the company will start noticeable improvement in the three quarter.

Increasing the cost of more direct stores requires a continuous process to digest.

The EPS maintained for 10-12 years was 0.75, 1 and 1.40 yuan / share.

The company is the most leading and solid foundation of leisure wear in China. Although there have been some mistakes in its development strategy, it can be actively concerned in the stage of gradual improvement.

The current valuation is 10, 11 and 33 years and 24.6 times, A shares in Brand Company still have a certain valuation advantage, but due to higher share prices in the early period, it is expected that there may be consolidation pressure in the short term, the target price of half a year can be given 30 yuan, corresponding to 11 times 30 times PE.

Maintain the investment rating of "strongly recommend a".