How Much Will The Renminbi Appreciate This Year?

Exchange rate has reached a new high since then.

According to the latest data from China foreign exchange trading center, the RMB pair in April 11th. US dollar exchange rate The median price was 6.5401, up 19 basis points from the previous trading day, to a new high. At the same time, the RMB exchange rate has also reached a new high since the exchange rate reform.

According to the authorization of the people's Bank of China, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that in April 11th, the intermediate price of the US dollar and other currencies in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was RMB 1 yuan to RMB 6.5401 yuan, 1 euro to RMB 9.4531 yuan, 100 yen to RMB 7.6929 yuan, 1 Hong Kong dollar to the people's currency 0.84184 yuan, 1 pounds to RMB 10.6976 yuan, RMB 1 yuan to the ringgit, and RMB to RMB rouble.

The central bank announced in June 19, 2010 that it would restart the exchange reform to enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate and continue to dynamically manage and regulate the floating of RMB exchange rate in accordance with the floating interval of the announced exchange market exchange rate. Nearly 6 days between banks foreign exchange The middle price of RMB exchange rate in the market is 1 yuan to 6.5401 yuan in April 11th, 1 yuan to 6.5420 yuan in April 8th, 6.5456 yuan in April 7th to 1 yuan in April 7th, 1 yuan in April 6th to 6.5496 yuan in April 1st, 6.5527 yuan in April 1st to 1 yuan in March 31st, 1 dollars in March 31st and 1 yuan in Renminbi.

Several reasons for continuous new heights

about RMB Ding Zhijie, President of the school of finance, University of International Business and Economics, believes that there are three reasons: first, from the market, the main reason is that the US dollar index has been on a downward trend recently. Over the past few years, the US dollar has been weakening. As the RMB exchange rate is referenced by a basket of currencies, the other currencies of the basket can be folded into more dollars, and the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is a normal phenomenon.

Second, in April 1st, China launched RMB foreign exchange options. This indicates that China is constantly pushing forward the infrastructure construction of the foreign exchange market, marking an important step in the direction of China's deepening of the foreign exchange derivatives market and the liberalization of the exchange rate system. It also releases a signal that the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate will accelerate.

Third, this is the result of China's exchange rate adjustment. Since the reform in June last year, the yuan has appreciated against the US dollar. However, the nominal effective exchange rate, which measures the overall level, has depreciated and the effective exchange rate is basically stable. This is because China's higher inflation rate than other countries has brought about an appreciation of the real exchange rate, which is offset by nominal depreciation. It is estimated that the real effective exchange rate of RMB will continue to appreciate in the future, but the way of appreciation will be different. It will also be manifested in two aspects: nominal exchange rate and inflation.

The industry also said that the yuan continued to record high, on the one hand, due to the sustained trade surplus in China, which led to the expected increase in RMB appreciation; on the other hand, due to the combined influence of the international situation, the price of bulk commodities based on international crude oil climbed. At this point, the appreciation of the renminbi can, to a certain extent, "suppress" the pressure of imported inflation. Judging from the current situation, the first quarter has just passed, the appreciation of the renminbi has been more than 1%. The expectation of RMB appreciation is still more obvious throughout the year. If the current appreciation rate goes down, the appreciation of RMB will reach 3%-4% this year, or even higher.

It has great influence on domestic enterprises.

The central bank's recent China financial market development report released in 2010 also pointed out that the influx of international capital will have an impact on the foreign exchange market and increase the pressure of RMB appreciation. Since the implementation of the loose macroeconomic policy in major economies, the emerging market countries, including China, have generally suffered from a large capital inflow pressure, which may not be conducive to maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and affecting the cultivation of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.

In fact, the impact of RMB appreciation on economic entities is also great. Jing Naiquan, an associate professor at the school of economics, Zhejiang University, said that the appreciation of the renminbi is a long-term trend. The continuous rapid appreciation in these days is nothing more than a typical small fluctuation. It is estimated that the inflation represented by the depreciation of the US dollar will be a long-term trend.

As for the impact on domestic industry, he thinks that we should look at it from two aspects: on the one hand, the pressure on domestic export oriented enterprises is very great, and the situation is very grim. Because production costs are getting higher and higher, enterprises are overwhelmed. On the other hand, for enterprises, this may be an opportunity, forcing our enterprises to transform and upgrade, and eliminate those extensive and labor-intensive backward enterprises.

Experts say that under the dual pressure of rising costs and appreciation of the renminbi, the pressure of export business will surely increase this year.

Recent international commodity prices are rising all the way to further increase domestic inflationary pressures. Some analysts believe that the slow appreciation of the renminbi will help ease the pressure of inflation. At the same time, China's trade deficit in the first quarter was $1 billion 20 million, the first quarterly trade deficit in China in 6 years. The basic balance between China's foreign trade and import and export will effectively alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation.

Some experts said that the recent trend of RMB has already been strong. After the central bank raised interest rates again, the market's confidence in the renminbi is increasing. It is estimated that the slow appreciation of the renminbi will continue to be a trend in the near future.

Guo Shitao, an analyst at Datong securities, said that under the current severe price situation, China may hedge against inflation pressure through the appreciation of the renminbi. He predicted that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will accelerate in the two quarter, and the US dollar will reach 6.20 this year, compared with the US dollar exchange rate of 5-6 yuan to 1 dollars during the "12th Five-Year" period.