45% Dairy Enterprise Audit Has Not Passed Or Will Close &Nbsp; Erie Mengniu Chase The Army.

The regular replacement of production licenses is normal in the dairy industry, but with the morning of April 2nd,

According to the AQSIQ disclosure, as of March 31st, 1176 dairy enterprises (including 145 infant formula milk powder enterprises), 643 enterprises passed the re examination of production license (including 114 infant formula milk powder enterprises), 107 enterprises ceased production rectification, and 426 enterprises did not pass the examination.

The quality and technology supervision departments in various places are canceling the dairy production license that has not passed the examination and approval law, and the enterprises that have not passed the examination and rectification and production stoppage will stop producing dairy products.

Since the veto rate of up to 45% is much higher than the industry's previous forecast, analysts believe that this round of rectification will provide opportunities for leading enterprises from several aspects, such as milk source regulation and industry capacity release.

Leading enterprises in the industry, such as Erie and Mengniu, will take the opportunity to expand Ruyuan. Some analysts believe that judging from the current situation, there are still uncertainties in the issuance of the dairy production license, which may be clearer at the end of April.

For this result, Chen Lianfang, an analyst from Eastern Ireland, said in an interview with reporters that "it is not surprising."

At the same time, he also believes that from the current situation, this is not the final result, "there will be variables in the future around the production license audit."

According to the relevant regulations, enterprises that fail to meet the requirements shall be ordered to stop production, sale and rectification within a specified time. If the rectification fails, the production license shall be revoked or revoked. The local government should take measures such as revoking business license, collecting tax invoices and dismantling facilities and facilities, so as to prevent enterprises from illegally starting production.

"Judging from the information available now, the latest" conditions for production license review "are detailed in all aspects of production.

There is no clear rules for the rectification of enterprises. How should the rectification time be stipulated?

Should it be different from factory?

These are important factors that affect the re examination of enterprises' licenses. "

Chen Lianfang said.

Coincidentally, the Bank of China International report also believes that, up to the end of March, 45.3% of the national dairy enterprises failed to re examine the production license (including production stoppage and rectification), but it is expected that about 30% of the enterprises will eventually withdraw from the market.

In the course of this change, which enterprises will eventually benefit and benefit, it is not well quantified.

But at the same time, Chen Lianfang also thinks that in the process of changing the industry, the advantage enterprises will have an opportunity to expand.

In addition to the uncertainties in the dairy production license audit, Chen Lianfang believes that the elimination rate in different regions will also affect the benefit level of the leading dairy enterprises in this round.

Public information shows that from the area of re examination and approval of the production license, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Guangdong and other provincial dairy enterprises have the highest proportion of audits, up to 70%; Anhui, Shaanxi, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Henan, Shandong and other provinces are next to about 50-60%, left and right; Liaoning Province has the lowest pass rate of 29%.

Therefore, there are people in the industry who believe that the benefit rate of the dominant dairy enterprises in Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Shaanxi provinces will be greater. The benefits not only reflected in the relative scale advantages, but also become a catalyst to accelerate the profits of dairy enterprises in terms of cost reduction and profit margins.

Qilu Securities reports that at present, the production capacity of the national dairy enterprises, including infant formula milk powder enterprises, is mainly concentrated in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Hebei, Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan and other places. The elimination rate of the top ten major dairy production provinces is basically above 30-40%, which will give rise to a major investment opportunity for dairy industry.

Chen Lianfang believes that the final result is that the enterprises without milk guarantee and backward processing will be eliminated.

However, "for small and medium enterprises, the majority of dairy products are manufactured, and very few small and medium-sized dairy enterprises have milk sources, because the investment in dairy farming is very large."

Chen Lianfang said.

Insiders believe that the withdrawal of the market is part of small businesses and backward production capacity, "the elimination of these enterprises, to a certain extent, alleviate the pressure of milk sources, from then on to enable outstanding enterprise capacity to be released, profit margins will further improve."

Chen Lianfang analysis, "therefore, the concentration of leading enterprises will be more obvious, the expansion rate of first-line products will therefore accelerate."

Although these enterprises have little influence on the overall competition pattern of dairy industry, but due to the large number of discontinued enterprises, there will be more obvious capacity pfer in the short term. In the medium to long term, it is expected that 20%-25% production capacity will be pferred to other dominant enterprises that continue to produce, and it will be good for 600887.SH, Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK), Guangming dairy (600597.SH) and other regional brand dairy enterprises.

In these leading enterprises, in addition to the good productivity, the pressure of milk sources has also been high. Therefore, some listed dairy products enterprises that have mastered the milk have been placed high hopes in this round of rectification.

Because of mastering raw milk, Fukucheng Itoyo's dairy business was once valued.

However, Fukucheng Itoyo's dairy production project did not receive the production license in this round of audit, but because the project's share in the main business was small, and the existing production line was a canned production line, "conversion of other items is also very convenient."

Song Baoxian, director of Fu Cheng Wufeng, told reporters in an interview.

"Our performance will not be greatly affected.

China's dairy industry is not very standardized, and increasing regulation is a good thing for the industry. "

Song Baoxian said.

"After these rectification measures, the supply gap of milk supply is expected to narrow, which will help to alleviate the vicious competition in the milk purchase link, which will help to alleviate the pressure on the cost of raw materials, and at the same time, the capacity utilization of enterprises will also be improved."

For the impact of this round of rectification on the industry, Song Baoxian believes that the price of milk in some areas may be affected, but "this round of attacks is mostly on the terminal, instead of forcing raw milk to be more standardized."