The Second Increase In Oil Prices This Year Is &Nbsp, Or Will Increase Inflationary Pressure.

Qingming just passed, finished products.

The national development and Reform Commission formally raised the price of gasoline and diesel oil by 500 yuan / ton and 400 yuan / ton respectively on the 7 th.

Among them, the price of aviation 3 jet fuel is raised by 500 yuan / ton to 6840 yuan / ton.

This is also the second round price increase this year, which is higher than the 350 yuan / ton increase in February 20th this year.

Insiders said that the increase in oil prices was mainly affected by soaring international oil prices, but the increase was lower than the increase in international oil prices, taking into account the cost of businesses and residents.

The price increase is expected to have some impact on CPI, but not much.

Soaring international oil prices

At 23:30 on the evening of 6, the main contract price of light crude oil futures of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was at the highest price of $109.15 per barrel, hitting a new round of rebound again.

Since the last domestic oil price adjustment (February 20th), international oil prices have risen nearly 20%.

This is the direct cause of the increase in the price of refined oil.

According to a number of energy information institutions, the average retail price of 90# gasoline and 0# diesel will be 9380 yuan / ton and 8530 yuan / ton respectively.

"From the point of time, it's time to adjust."

Dong Xiucheng, vice president of School of business administration, China University of Petroleum, said.

After March 22nd, the price adjustment window was opened because the price adjustment conditions of "22 working days +4%" were met.

However, due to the Qingming travel peak, coupled with the domestic inflation pressure, the oil price rise has lagged behind again.

From the statistics, we can see that since the price adjustment began in March 25, 2009 for the first time, the price of gasoline and diesel has been raised 9 times, and the average price lag is 8 days.

And with the domestic

The last two (December 22, 2010 and February 20, 2011) have reached the lag period of 20 working days. At the same time, the latest national inflation rate of gasoline and diesel prices is also significantly lower than the theoretical amplitude. This shows that the state has shown more and more cautious attitude towards the adjustment of domestic oil prices for consideration of macroeconomic factors.

Affect CPI

"Refined oil prices will mainly exert greater pressure on the pportation industry.

For example, the pportation cost of vegetables from production, wholesale to retail links may be relatively high in vegetable prices.

Shi Weixiang, a strategist at Guotai Junan, told reporters that it was estimated that if the refined oil price was adjusted by 10%, the direct and indirect effects on CPI would be less than 0.1%.

In addition, once the refined oil price adjustment, it may also affect the price of natural gas, coal, water and other products.

But he also pointed out that the price adjustment of coal and electricity has a greater impact on CPI.

In mid April last year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 320 yuan / ton. At that time, the NDRC had pointed out that the increase in refined oil prices would boost the CPI price index by 0.07 percentage points in April.

Shi Weixiang said that although all the domestic parties are worried that inflation will further intensify, every time the NDRC adjusts the price of gasoline and diesel oil, it will also implement a package of subsidies for agriculture, taxis and fisheries.

For the future oil price trend, Huachang securities expects that oil prices will remain at 110~120 US dollars / barrel level this year, mainly because the US economy is recovering and the demand for oil is increasing. On the other hand, Japan's post disaster reconstruction will also boost oil demand.

In addition, the weakening of nuclear power use worldwide will increase the demand for petroleum energy.

And if Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries are also volatile (this is a small probability event), oil prices are likely to break through 150 US dollars / barrel.

Fuel surcharge or increase

The price adjustment may bring fuel surcharges on domestic routes.

According to the notice of price increase, the price of jet fuel 3, which was mainly used by airlines, was raised by 500 yuan / ton to 6840 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of aviation oil purchased by airlines is composed of three parts: the price of domestic aviation oil, the difference between the comprehensive procurement cost of China Aviation Oil and the difference between the selling price and the selling price of each airport.

Aviation oil is currently the biggest cost of airlines.

A few years ago, Air China and China Eastern Airlines had hedged high oil prices through fuel hedging, but this method was stopped in 2008 because of a huge loss.

According to the reporter, at present, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines are considering whether to restart the fuel oil warranty, but it is still necessary for the SASAC and other aspects to approve the operation.

Air China and Eastern Airlines still have some unfinished hedging contracts.

In addition to fuel bunker, airlines can also offset fuel costs by levying fuel surcharges.

In April 6th, the fuel surcharge for domestic routes has not changed for the time being. However, according to the new oil price, according to the latest domestic passenger pport fuel calculation formula released by the NDRC in April 1st, it is likely that the fuel surcharge will rise correspondingly, but at the end of the day, Airlines will independently determine the specific charge and execution time according to the formula.