PMI Rose To &Nbsp In March, And Inflation Is Still Hard.

Recently, the China logistics and purchasing Federation (CFLP) issued a report. The report shows that in March, PMI was 53.4%, rising by 1.2%.

This data shows that the downward trend of PMI ended in March for three consecutive months, with a slight recovery.

On the same day, HSBC announced the PMI index of China's manufacturing industry in March, rising from 51.7% in February to 51.8%. The industry believes that although the data increase is weak, but in the trend consistent with the Chinese official PMI.

CICC reports that the increase of PMI in March is less than that in previous years, which is a sharp increase in real terms. According to the report, consistent with the initial slowdown in the first two months of this year, the March PMI showed that the effect of policy tightening has been reflected in the real economy.

　 Investment growth rate higher PMI

In March, PMI rose 1.2 percentage points, from the sub index, compared with the previous month, purchasing volume index, import index and purchase price index fell, and the latter two indexes dropped nearly 2 percentage points. The remaining sub indices rose, with the backlog order index and finished goods inventory index rising by more than 4 percentage points.

From the PMI sub item data, the new order index this month is 55.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month. From the structural point of view, there is a rise or fall, equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer and communications equipment manufacturing industry new orders index has maintained a high level, in March is now strong rebound; and energy and basic raw material manufacturing industry demand is not rising or falling.

In terms of exports, new Exit The order index rose 1.6 percentage points to 52.5%, indicating a strong recovery in the external demand market. In terms of industries, the industry of general equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing is higher than 50%, while electromechanical products have always occupied half of China's exports. {page_break}

The experts told reporters that PMI rebounded slightly in March, largely due to a certain growth rate in the month of 1~2.

　 Economic recovery is uncertain.

Most analysts and agencies believe that this is not a sign that China's economy has already gotten rid of the trend of decline, and that the situation of economic recovery is not clear for the recovery of PMI.

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, said that economic activity tends to be active in the short term, mainly in terms of industrial production, especially investment related industrial production activities. Consumption growth has slowed down in recent months, and production of all kinds of consumer goods has grown or weakened in the future.

Zhang Liqun, an expert at the National Research Center, believes that investment growth in 1~2 months is high and stable, and both exports and consumption growth are down. If inventory is adjusted again in the future, economic growth will still decrease. The increase of new export order index and the reduction of purchase price index are of positive significance to the operation of enterprises, but we need to continue to observe them.

Previously, PMI fell for three consecutive months, including a weak recovery in March. Both showed that a series of tightening policies designed to curb price adjustment and structural adjustment have already played a role in the real economy, and the policy environment may be slightly more relaxed in the future.

Lian Ping analysis said that the future Monetary policy tools The frequency of adjustment will decrease and the way will be more flexible. He believes that the CPI will fall in the second half of the year. For forward-looking reasons, the need for continued interest rates in the second half of this year will be significantly reduced, and the high frequency adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio will also decline, but the operation of the open market, especially the central bank, will increase.