Domestic Cotton Enterprises Purchase Intention Is Slightly Insufficient, Zheng Cotton Callback Pressure Increased

Although it is currently in China

In addition, the price difference between cotton and substitutes continues to expand to suppress the demand for cotton. From the current trend, the upward pressure on the market will increase, and the adjustment may be imminent.

The spot market is dull.

Affected by the negative impact of national policies, Zheng cotton futures are ups and downs, but

Judging from the current farmers' willingness to grow, the growth of cotton planting area is relatively limited this year.

Spot enterprises, the current industrial inventories are relatively increased, cotton textile enterprises have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, trading is relatively light.

Internationally, according to the latest report from the US Department of agriculture, the US cotton planting area is 130 million acres, the US cotton new year ending inventory is 2 million 900 thousand packages, the inventory consumption ratio has increased to 16%, and the global output is expected to grow by 10.6%.

This will restrain cotton prices from rising substantially.

The policy is bad.

In the cotton industry,

As the spot price is significantly lower than the futures price, this will greatly expand the number of cotton warehouse receipts, short term on the cotton futures market negative.

Of course, in the long run, prices are determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand. But from this policy, we can see clearly that the country's willingness to suppress high cotton prices will continue to increase if cotton prices continue to rise.

Expansion of price difference between cotton and polyester staple affects cotton demand

At present, cotton spot prices continue to rise, pushing the price of the substitutes market to continue to rise. The current difference between cotton and PTA and polyester staple is between 14000~16000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the current trend, this price gap has expanded, which led to the textile industry to increase the replacement of polyester staple fiber to cotton, and thus have a negative impact on cotton demand.

In addition, although the price is advancing rapidly, it can be clearly seen from the chart that the non commercial multi position positions of the US cotton fund have declined considerably, and the bears have also fallen. However, the decline is relatively small, and the net position drop is more obvious. We can see that the current price rise is short of quantity support, and according to the market rule, the market outlook has a return to the value requirement.

Technical analysis {page_break}

The upmarket space is limited.

Zheng cotton main force 1109 appeared near the early high point of the callback trend, but from the K-line view, the current price in February 28th, the price limit has obvious support, but the recent callback also appeared obvious increase, and in March 3rd appeared a more standard form of swallow, KD index has formed a dead fork.

Overall, the current price has been significantly higher than the spot price. At present, the price of the spot has been significantly increased. The upward trend of the price is mainly driven by funds, and the upmarket space of the latter market will be relatively limited.

Taking the recent high point or the previous high point as the stop loss price, the first target is the recent low point.